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TACO, Again! (China Edition)
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US Real Exports Flatlining Despite Rising RoW GDP, Depreciated Dollar
What else did you expect?
Betting on 2.5%
Kalshi today. 2.4% from GDPNow and the Bloomberg consensus.
Where Is the Administration’s Economic Forecast? A Forensic Analysis
It’s usually in the Mid-Session Review, which comes out in July. But no table of forecasts is included this year (you can check–I did!). Which begs the question — how did they estimate the revenues going forward if they didn’t have GDP projections?
Scary Picture?
Some macro series. One observation does not make a trend – but still…
West Coast Port Traffic Down
Or at least Long Beach and LA:
Nowcasts of GDP and “Core GDP”
As of today, GDP nowcasts split, but final sales to private domestic purchasers (coined “Core GDP” by Furman) consensus is deceleration.
Signs of a Slowing Russian Economy: CBR Drops Rate 200 bp
Three weeks ago, Bofit remarks “Concerns emerge over Russia’s slowing growth”:
What Fed Funds Rate Does Trump Want?
Compared to Taylor rule, according the to the Atlanta Fed Taylor rule utility.
Guest Contribution: “Global shocks, institutional development, and trade restrictions: What can we learn from crises and recoveries between 1990 and 2022?”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes). This post is based on the paper of the same title (Aizenman, Ito, Park, Saadaoui, and Uddin, 2025).