A tautology:
MV ≡ PQ
From 2019, pay special attention to CoRev’s statistical analysis (at the end):
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
unadjusted for composition:
Estimating through end-May, regressions of mass shooting casualties, and mass shooting events:
Assault weapons ban and Trump effects.
(log first differences):
This is a reprint of a post from 2020.
(And I have seen a lot of terrible analysis) [Update 8/14/2020: the author has taken down the post, but here is an archived 8/13/2020 version of the webpage]
Reader Bruce Hall recommends links to this article which asserts that 2020 is not anomalous in terms of deaths. In fact, it’s 20th out the last 21 years!
Higher rates soon, long term inflation expectations anchored, and on term spread signals growth (as do real rates).
Econbrowser has hosted lots debates about how to forecast. For people who want to learn how forecasting is done, here are two series I’ve been made aware of.
The IIF’s next session is with Mike McCracken (St. Louis Fed) on “On the real-time predictive content of financial conditions indexes for growth” (May 10). The HO Steckler Program’s two speakers are Juhee Bae (University Of Glasgow) “Forecasting With Partial Least Squares When A Large Number Of Predictors Are Available” (May 5), and Renee Fry-McKibbin (ANU) “Measuring Global Interest Rate Comovements with Implications for Monetary Policy Interdependence” (May 12).
I’m sure I’m missing many others, so suggestions welcome.
And since I’m doing a public service ad, here’s the link to economics data sources, so even if you don’t want to do econometrics, at least you can look up the data yourself to see if your preconceived notions are validated or not (i.e., don’t believe your typical ZeroHedge post..).