Inversion on the second, as the first rises, as likelihood of June 1 default rises.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Remembering Trump Economic Prognostications
In the wake of Mr. Trump’s admonition to Republicans to try out default, please recall:
Real Wages, 2007-2023M04
Higher than at previous NBER peak (2020M02):
On Debt Default
Full quote of Donald Trump regarding default (CNBC):
“Well, you might as well do it now because you’ll do it later because we have to save this country. Our country is dying. Our country is being destroyed by stupid people, by very stupid people.”
Of Nowcasts and Revisions
Don’t pay too much attention to the headline change in employment.
Mass Shooting Fatalities This Year Are Not So Bad If You Exclude “Illegal Immigrants” (read subhumans)
As defined by Governor Abbott:
GDP, GDP+, Final Sales
Jim noted recurrent delays in the long heralded recession in his Thursday post. Here are some additional reflections on where economic activity has been, and where it is heading, relying on additional data. GDPNow (which hit the mark for Q1 growth) indicates continued growth through Q2. S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) indicates a plateau has been reached. Final sales (i.e., GDP ex. inventories) suggests continued growth.
The Godot recession
Everybody’s waiting for it, but it’s still not here yet.
Continue reading
On Illiteracy
Reader JohnH writes about the discourse on Econbrowser:
Amazing the Krugman’s minimalist treatment of inequality far exceeds what I see mentioned here!
Weekly Macro Indicators through April 8
Here’re some macro indices at the weekly frequency for the real economy.