Economic growth slightly below trend.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Not “Exogenous versus Endogenous Business Cycles: How the Pandemic differed from an Ordinary Recession.”
Reader Steven Kopits (who doesn’t know what a confidence interval is formally defined as, and thought no more than 300-400 people died in Hurricane Maria) urges me to write a paper with the above title.
Output Gap Measures
Are we at full employment? Here are some estimates:
“The U.S. economy, interest rates, inflation and the possibility of a coming recession”
That’s the topic for The Morning Show on “The Ideas Network”, 8am CT, at
Super Bowl gambling, New STEM museum, Economic forecast, Vocal cord dysfunction
Asian-Americans Once Again Thank Trump
Where Does UkraineRussia Fit As an Independent State, Historically?
A great map, courtesy of the former President of Mongolia:
Donald Trump Proposes Violating Treaty Agreements
From CNN:
Where to Find Business Cycle Dates for Countries [updated]
Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations. (update of post 12.6.2021)
One of the Three is Not Like the Others: The Partisan Divide and Economic Sentiment
Here’s the U.Michigan sentiment indices for three partisan groupings, vs. the SF Fed News Sentiment index.
Employment in January: Benchmark Revisions, Seasonality, Population Controls
The Employment Situation release for January 2024 incorporated annual benchmark revisions to establishment survey series, and reported population controls for the household survey series. NFP at +353 vs. +187 thousands Bloomberg consensus. (Last year at this time, NFP again surprised, at +517 thousand exceeding the Bloomberg consensus of +115 thousand.)