As I wrote yesterday, “tomorrow is another day”.
Figure 1: UK Economic Policy Uncertainty (blue), and centered 7 day moving average (red). ECRI defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: policyuncertainty.com, ECRI and author’s calculations.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
UK Measured Economic Policy Uncertainty in Context
In some ways, policy uncertainty — at least as measured using text — is not as bad as I would’ve thought. Here’s the Baker-Bloom-Davis index:
Rumors of the Vast Data Conspiracy Continue
A (conspiracy-minded) reader writes: “Where is this being reported? Heck FRED doesn’t even graph real corporate profit growth. Shhhhh!”. But all one has to do is search for “corporate profits” (5 seconds) and then an appropriate deflator. I use the PCE deflator, and I get the following graph in FRED, which I download:
Hurricane Maria and Puerto Rico 5 Years Later
Now seems a useful time to re-assess some of the pronouncements made in the wake of the tragic disaster that struck Puerto Rico in September 2017. First, fatalities of Americans (contra Mr. Trump’s seeming assertion these were not American) were much higher than some commentators claimed. Second, arguments that economic policies undertaken in 2016 and 2017 (i.e., the austerity measures associated with PROMESA) caused more deaths than Hurricane Maria are incorrect. Finally, the economic challenges that existed before the hurricane struck — including insufficient tax revenues — remain, even as the economy has rebounded.
CEPR “The global economic consequences of the Ukraine war”
A new ebook, edited by Luis Garicano, Dominic Rohner, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro.
If You Were Curious
Order of Battle, Izium area:
Data Compendium, Updated
Another update of The Data Will Set You Free , so you won’t go around quoting Zerohedge.
The Hit to the Russian Economy, Internally Assessed
How Do We Know this Photo Was Actually Taken at Mar-a-Lago?
(Rejoinder to all the conspiracy nuts who will say this photo was taken elsewhere)
“AFFIDAVIT IN SUPPORT OF AN APPLICATION UNDER RULE 41 FOR A WARRANT TO SEARCH AND SEIZE “
From WaPo [link added 2pm]:
An FBI affidavit filed prior to the search of former president Donald Trump’s home says agents reviewed 184 classified documents that were kept at the Florida property after he left the White House — including several with Trump’s apparent handwriting on them…
Here’s the redacted affidavit. [link]