It’s the year that Donald Trump said that in the war against Great Britain, “Our army manned the air, it rammed the ramparts, it took over the airports, it did everything it had to do, and at Fort McHenry, under the rockets’ red glare, it had nothing but victory.”
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Madison, WI, December 17th – A March
To Impeach Trump
© Lauren Justice for The New York Times. Protesters gathered outside the Wisconsin State Capitol in Madison, Wis.
Source: Vigdor, “Protesters Clamor for Trump’s Impeachment on Eve of House Votes,” NYT, 17 December 2019.
In Defense of Applying Cointegration Testing and Error Correction Models
In honor of Mark Thoma’s retirement, let me discuss the relevance of one of his papers (coauthored with Tim Duy) regarding the usefulness of imposing cointegrating restrictions.
Bleg: Examples of Bad Econometrics to Teach
I’ve been tapped to teach the second course in the statistics/econometrics sequence at the La Follette School. I need examples of excruciatingly bad econometrics to discuss. Please post your suggestions as comments. In 2016, I assigned students to examine the empirical content of “business conditions” indices, like Stephen Moore’s/ALEC Economic Outlook rankings.
Making America Great Again (in Indebtedness): Net International Investment Position
NIIP is the difference between US holdings of assets abroad, minus foreign holdings of US assets. Shown below is the ratio of NIIP to GDP.
Neel Kashkari at Madison: “Kashkari says he takes comfort from yield curve shape”
Should he? FRB Minneapolis Fed President was at UW Madison today, and stated:
“The fact that the yield curve is now uninverted gives me some indication that we have taken the brakes off the economy,”
“CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2019 Update”
From the Highlights of a new CBO study:
If the Administration Is So Concerned about Corruption…
shouldn’t it be doing something about the Russian Federation as well?
Sick of “Winning”: Trade Deficit Edition
Since January 2017:
Gross vs. Net Investment, Pre- and Post-TCJA
In other words, the sugar high fades. Brad Setser has noted how weak nonresidential fixed investment has been, despite the TCJA. It looks worse when looking at net — rather than gross — investment.