As Wisconsinites will recall, as late as August 2013, Governor Walker was reiterating his promise to create 250,000 new private sector jobs by the end of his first term (January 2015). As of July 2018, Wisconsin’s private sector net job creation surpassed Walker’s promised target — a full 3.5 years late.
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Category Archives: Wisconsin
Comparing MN and WI along Five Variables
In a recent paper, Ryan LeCloux and I use five macroeconomic measures to assess state economic performance (post). Here, I use updated data to evaluate Minnesota’s economic performance vis à vis Wisconsin: GDP, personal income, nonfarm payroll employment, civilian employment, and coincident indices and “adjusted” coincident indices.
The Wisconsin Macro Outlook
The June coincident index flattens out; the leading index, released today, predicts a 1.1% growth over the next six months. Minnesota’s forecasted growth is over twice that rate.
A Short History of Turning Points in Wisconsin
Ever since the Walker Administration ended the issuance of the Wisconsin Economic Outlook (last issue May 2015), those of us outside of the government have been a little in the dark when trying to assess state level economic conditions in a systematic manner. In a recent paper (updated version 8/1), Ryan LeCloux and I assess how various macroeconomic aggregates track the Wisconsin economy at higher-than-annual frequency. Investigating the behavior of these series yields the following graph.
A Study in Contrasts: Four States Q1 GDP
According to data released today, Wisconsin ranks 40th in the first read on 2018Q1 state GDP growth. Washington state ranks first (even though it’s ranked 37th for economic outlook in the 2018 ALEC-Arthur Laffer-Steven Mooore-Jonathan Williams Rich States Poor States).
Return of the Log (Function)
Ed Hanson writes, after plotting the data:
The graph shows, in general, Minnesota’s increasing gap of per capita income over Wisconsin since at least 1970. It is not just since 2011 that this trend began.
This observation is right in a way — wrong in a deeper, more economically interesting, way. Investigation highlights the usefulness of the log function.
Per Capita GDP in MN, WI over 30 Years
Reader Ed Hanson accuses me of misleading people about the growth rate of per capita income in Minnesota and Wisconsin, by omitting results on trends in long samples, and focussing on short samples. Personally, I don’t recall plotting per capita income, but rather per capita income (which differs from GDP), but here for the interested reader is a graph of the relevant data, for the longest span readily available.
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Wisconsin, Tradables, and the Impending Trade War
I was wondering how Wisconsin, a steel using (not producing), manufacturing and export dependent state was faring as tariffs and retaliation loomed.
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A Clear and Present Danger: The Imminent Cheese Gap
First, it was the mineshaft gap. Now, it’s the Cheese Gap. And a dairy trade war is the perfect way to approach the impending threat.
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Wisconsin Employment: Already in the Doldrums, Pre-Harley-Davidson
With some tariff induced offshoring of Harley-Davidson, now is perhaps a good time to consider the repercussions of the current administration trade policy on Wisconsin — a steel using (not producing) state, with some cheese and soybean production…