The Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development (DWD) today released new employment data for October. Manufacturing employment surged in the establishment data, but the contemporaneously released additional three months of data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) (through June) suggests slower manufacturing growth.
Category Archives: Wisconsin
Quarterly Census Data on Wisconsin Manufacturing: More on Premature Triumphalism
Recall the Walker Administration termed the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) the “gold standard” of employment measures. I thought it useful to compare the QCEW figures on manufacturing against the establishment survey. Here is the twelve month growth rate under the two measures (the QCEW data is not seasonally adjusted).
Figure 1: 12 month log difference in Wisconsin manufacturing payroll employment from establishment survey (CES) (blue), and from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) (red). Light brown shaded area denotes period where CES data has not been benchmarked using QCEW data. Source: BLS, DWD and author’s calculations.
How’s Wisconsin’s Economy Doing?
Employment underperforming the February Budget forecast; output too. Philadelphia Fed indices say activity is flat. A time series forecast using forward-looking indicators implies a continued rise in the unemployment rate.
A Modest Proposal (to Boost Growth): Wisconsin Edition
Certain individuals (even on this weblog) have highlighted the decline in labor force growth as a factor in stagnant economic growth in Wisconsin. Wisconsin State Representative Scott Allen has the following public policy proposal, as recounted in The Hill:
Did Lower Relative Manufacturing Wages Lead to Greater Manufacturing Activity in Wisconsin?
As suggested here. Maybe. It might depend on the measure of economic activity.
Wisconsin Economic Activity Flat… And Projected to Remain Flat
That’s what the Philadelphia Fed’s leading indices, released today, indicate. In contrast, Minnesota is projected to power ahead.
Figure 1: Coincident index for Minnesota (blue), Wisconsin (red), and US (black), 1992M07=100, all on log scale; March 2018 values are implied by leading indices. Source: Philadelphia Fed, author’s calculations.
The implied level of economic activity in March 2018 will not exceed the level estimated for July 2017.
Governor Scott Walker has described the Wisconsin economy as “on fire”.
Premature Triumphalism and Wisconsin Manufacturing
Some analyses have pointed to the surge in Wisconsin manufacturing employment as evidence that certain policy configurations lead to improved performance [1]
One for the Annals of Selective Data Reporting: Wisconsin Edition
Around midmonth I often check the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development to see their reporting of state employment statistics in advance of the BLS release (tomorrow, for the September figures). Oddly, today, the DWD released statistics for September, without any detailed tables, in an abbreviated press release (compare with last month’s release to see what I’m saying). In order to figure out the revised August numbers (and actual level of September preliminary numbers) one had to go back to earlier releases and add and subtract.
Wisconsin Employment Continues Downward in August
And is over 12,000 below April peak. Private nonfarm payroll employment is also declining, with previous months’ data revised down.
Wisconsin Employment below April Levels, Minnesota Surges
State agencies have released data on July employment. Below is Wisconsin, compared to Minnesota and the Nation.