Around midmonth I often check the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development to see their reporting of state employment statistics in advance of the BLS release (tomorrow, for the September figures). Oddly, today, the DWD released statistics for September, without any detailed tables, in an abbreviated press release (compare with last month’s release to see what I’m saying). In order to figure out the revised August numbers (and actual level of September preliminary numbers) one had to go back to earlier releases and add and subtract.
Category Archives: Wisconsin
Wisconsin Employment Continues Downward in August
And is over 12,000 below April peak. Private nonfarm payroll employment is also declining, with previous months’ data revised down.
Wisconsin Employment below April Levels, Minnesota Surges
State agencies have released data on July employment. Below is Wisconsin, compared to Minnesota and the Nation.
Not Foxconn in the Henhouse
But maybe Walker in the henhouse.
Beware the State Level Household Employment Series: Wisconsin Edition
Steve Kopits obsesses on the household survey based employment series for Wisconsin, despite our previous exchange on why reliance on this series for Kansas is a problem. But just to make matters concrete, lets look at a few vintages of the household series.
Context Is Important: More on MN vs. WI
Reader Jesse Livermore thinks he’s discovered Wisconsin is in actuality doing really well vis a vis Minnesota. He writes:
Wisconsin personal income growth dramatically outperformed Minnesota in Q1.
Well, I’ll just say the level is sometimes just as important as the first derivative. That’s why I plot time series, rather than just quoting a quarter’s worth of growth. Here is a comparison of personal income over the past few years.
Figure 1: Log nominal personal income for Minnesota (blue), Wisconsin (red), and US (black), all normalized to 2011Q1=0. Source: BEA, June 27, 2017, and author’s calculations.
On a per capita basis, cumulative Minnesota personal income growth remains 0.7 percent higher (log terms) than Wisconsin’s. It has been higher since 2011Q1.
My advice to anyone trying to assess relative economic performance: plot the time series.
Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment Continues to Decline
And lags further behind its neighbor Minnesota. Wisconsin nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment is now below April 2017 peak. Finally, employment lags what would be predicted from the historical correlation of Wisconsin employment with national.
Pangloss in Wisconsin
In search of a “supply side success” after the end of the Kansas experiment, conservative observers turn to Wisconsin. The Manhattan Institute’s Mr. Riedl declares victory:
Wisconsin’s job growth over the past six years has been extraordinarily strong.
When last we met Mr. Riedl, he was explaining why fiscal policy could have no impact on GDP because, well, because. That does not augur well for his abilities an economic analysis, and indeed we can easily poke holes into the argument that Wisconsin’s doing just great!
Stall Speed in Wisconsin?
A reader brings my attention to John Schmid’s article documenting the Wisconsin employment slowdown, relying on the Census of Quarterly Employment and Wages, for the year ending December 2016.
Continue reading
Minnesota Employment Growth Accelerates Relative to Wisconsin (Again)
Wisconsin and Minnesota released March employment figures today. Here, without comment (as none are needed) are year-on-year growth rates relative to the US average for Minnesota (blue) and Wisconsin (red).
Figure 1: 12 month log-differences of nonfarm payroll employment for Minnesota (blue) and Wisconsin (red), relative to US. Green shading denotes sample not updated to reflect QCEW-related benchmarking. Source: WI DWD, MN DEED, BLS, and author’s calculations.