Employment underperforming the February Budget forecast; output too. Philadelphia Fed indices say activity is flat. A time series forecast using forward-looking indicators implies a continued rise in the unemployment rate.
Category Archives: Wisconsin
A Modest Proposal (to Boost Growth): Wisconsin Edition
Certain individuals (even on this weblog) have highlighted the decline in labor force growth as a factor in stagnant economic growth in Wisconsin. Wisconsin State Representative Scott Allen has the following public policy proposal, as recounted in The Hill:
Did Lower Relative Manufacturing Wages Lead to Greater Manufacturing Activity in Wisconsin?
As suggested here. Maybe. It might depend on the measure of economic activity.
Wisconsin Economic Activity Flat… And Projected to Remain Flat
That’s what the Philadelphia Fed’s leading indices, released today, indicate. In contrast, Minnesota is projected to power ahead.
Figure 1: Coincident index for Minnesota (blue), Wisconsin (red), and US (black), 1992M07=100, all on log scale; March 2018 values are implied by leading indices. Source: Philadelphia Fed, author’s calculations.
The implied level of economic activity in March 2018 will not exceed the level estimated for July 2017.
Governor Scott Walker has described the Wisconsin economy as “on fire”.
Premature Triumphalism and Wisconsin Manufacturing
Some analyses have pointed to the surge in Wisconsin manufacturing employment as evidence that certain policy configurations lead to improved performance [1]
One for the Annals of Selective Data Reporting: Wisconsin Edition
Around midmonth I often check the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development to see their reporting of state employment statistics in advance of the BLS release (tomorrow, for the September figures). Oddly, today, the DWD released statistics for September, without any detailed tables, in an abbreviated press release (compare with last month’s release to see what I’m saying). In order to figure out the revised August numbers (and actual level of September preliminary numbers) one had to go back to earlier releases and add and subtract.
Wisconsin Employment Continues Downward in August
And is over 12,000 below April peak. Private nonfarm payroll employment is also declining, with previous months’ data revised down.
Wisconsin Employment below April Levels, Minnesota Surges
State agencies have released data on July employment. Below is Wisconsin, compared to Minnesota and the Nation.
Not Foxconn in the Henhouse
But maybe Walker in the henhouse.
Beware the State Level Household Employment Series: Wisconsin Edition
Steve Kopits obsesses on the household survey based employment series for Wisconsin, despite our previous exchange on why reliance on this series for Kansas is a problem. But just to make matters concrete, lets look at a few vintages of the household series.