Category Archives: Wisconsin

Wisconsin Economic Activity Flat… And Projected to Remain Flat

That’s what the Philadelphia Fed’s leading indices, released today, indicate. In contrast, Minnesota is projected to power ahead.



Figure 1: Coincident index for Minnesota (blue), Wisconsin (red), and US (black), 1992M07=100, all on log scale; March 2018 values are implied by leading indices. Source: Philadelphia Fed, author’s calculations.

The implied level of economic activity in March 2018 will not exceed the level estimated for July 2017.

Governor Scott Walker has described the Wisconsin economy as “on fire”.

One for the Annals of Selective Data Reporting: Wisconsin Edition

Around midmonth I often check the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development to see their reporting of state employment statistics in advance of the BLS release (tomorrow, for the September figures). Oddly, today, the DWD released statistics for September, without any detailed tables, in an abbreviated press release (compare with last month’s release to see what I’m saying). In order to figure out the revised August numbers (and actual level of September preliminary numbers) one had to go back to earlier releases and add and subtract.

Continue reading →

Context Is Important: More on MN vs. WI

Reader Jesse Livermore thinks he’s discovered Wisconsin is in actuality doing really well vis a vis Minnesota. He writes:

Wisconsin personal income growth dramatically outperformed Minnesota in Q1.

Well, I’ll just say the level is sometimes just as important as the first derivative. That’s why I plot time series, rather than just quoting a quarter’s worth of growth. Here is a comparison of personal income over the past few years.



Figure 1: Log nominal personal income for Minnesota (blue), Wisconsin (red), and US (black), all normalized to 2011Q1=0. Source: BEA, June 27, 2017, and author’s calculations.

On a per capita basis, cumulative Minnesota personal income growth remains 0.7 percent higher (log terms) than Wisconsin’s. It has been higher since 2011Q1.

My advice to anyone trying to assess relative economic performance: plot the time series.

Pangloss in Wisconsin

In search of a “supply side success” after the end of the Kansas experiment, conservative observers turn to Wisconsin. The Manhattan Institute’s Mr. Riedl declares victory:

Wisconsin’s job growth over the past six years has been extraordinarily strong.

When last we met Mr. Riedl, he was explaining why fiscal policy could have no impact on GDP because, well, because. That does not augur well for his abilities an economic analysis, and indeed we can easily poke holes into the argument that Wisconsin’s doing just great!

Continue reading →