New state level employment data, benchmarked through September 2017, released yesterday indicate the manufacturing employment surge reported last year has been erased, as I predicted in this post. The October-January data do not incorporate additional information from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
Category Archives: Wisconsin
Wisconsin, Trade and Section 232
I was interviewed on the weekly newsmagazine Here and Now today about Mr. Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum:
Regarding Wisconsin, cheese was not on the Hit List, but motorcycles and cranberries were.
Austerity, What’s It Good For?
With apologies to Seinfeld. It seems like a long time ago that conservatives argued for cutting taxes and cutting spending so as to spur expansion — but the Brownback and Walker experiments in Kansas and Wisconsin are in some sense just being completed now, some five years after Governor Brownback’s “shot of adrenaline” forecast.
Wisconsin GDP since Walker
Here are GDP series for Wisconsin, as compared to Minnesota and the Nation, normalized to 2011Q1 when Governor Walker took office. I’ve indicated the implementation of the Manufacturing and Agriculture Credit, and percentages, as well.
Tax Preferences for Manufacturing and Manufacturing Value Added in Wisconsin
State level data for GDP in 2017Q3 were released yesterday. This is an opportunity to evaluate the progress of manufacturing value added (as opposed to employment) in Wisconsin after passage of the Manufacturing and Agriculture Credit (MAC).
Wisconsin Nonfarm Employment Flat
Today, the DWD released statistics for December here. Total nonfarm payroll declined slightly, private increased slightly. The cumulative gap with respect to Minnesota (and the US) widened in both cases.
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Wisconsin in Recession?
I doubt it, but it’s more likely than an ongoing recession in California. Wisconsin year-on-year GDP growth lags, personal income and wages/salaries growth are both bouncing around zero.
Wisconsin Macro Aggregates Stall
Wisconsin real personal income in Q3 is less than it was a 2015Q4, and since 2011Q1, cumulative nominal income is 5% lower than that in Minnesota (and the US). Wisconsin GDP growth through Q2 lags Minnesota and US.
Figure 1: Wisconsin GDP (blue) and personal income deflated by US PCE (red) in mn. Ch.2009$, SAAR, both on log scale. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA, and author’s calculations.
Wisconsin Output since Implementation of the MAC
The Manufacturing and Agriculture Credit, that is.
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Where’s the Wisconsin Manufacturing Output Renaissance?
Employment in manufacturing may be estimated to be rising, but output seems to be trending sideways through 2nd quarter.
Figure 1: Log real manufacturing output in Minnesota (blue) and in Wisconsin (red), normalized to 2011Q1=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Vertical dashed line at 2013Q1 indicates beginning of Wisconsin Manufacturing and Agriculture Credit (MAC). Source: BEA, accessed 12/3/2017, NBER, and author’s calculations.