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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Conference Board: Economic Confidence Up (a Little)

The Conference Board today:

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This entry was posted on July 29, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Gerard Baker: “If Trump’s Tariffs Are So Bad, Where’s the Recession?”

That question was posed in the WSJ, and poses three possible answers:

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This entry was posted on July 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

What Happens If IEEPA Tariffs Are Rule Illegal?

Oral arguments before the appellate court take place this week. Suppose the tariffs invoked under IEEPA are struck down, then that decision would likely be appealed to the Supreme Court (eventually). From CNBC:

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This entry was posted on July 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Stay Tuned: World Trade for June

From CPB, data through May:

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This entry was posted on July 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Wegovy ™ for Me, but Not for Thee (cont’d)

The just-announced trade “deal” (what’s the enforcement mechanism?) apparently covers pharmaceuticals. Where do we get most of our pharma (by value)? From Joey Politano, the answer:

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This entry was posted on July 27, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

TACO, Again! (China Edition)

Not that I’m complaining. Continue reading →

This entry was posted on July 27, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

US Real Exports Flatlining Despite Rising RoW GDP, Depreciated Dollar

What else did you expect?

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This entry was posted on July 27, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Betting on 2.5%

Kalshi today. 2.4% from GDPNow and the Bloomberg consensus.

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This entry was posted on July 27, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Where Is the Administration’s Economic Forecast? A Forensic Analysis

It’s usually in the Mid-Session Review, which comes out in July. But no table of forecasts is included this year (you can check–I did!). Which begs the question — how did they estimate the revenues going forward if they didn’t have GDP projections?

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This entry was posted on July 26, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Scary Picture?

Some macro series. One observation does not make a trend – but still…

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This entry was posted on July 25, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

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  • The Trump Economy Now: “Dead in the water”

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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