From WSJ:
Watch the Term Premium (10yr)
That’s Jared Bernstein’s advice, in the wake of Trump’s escalation of the war on Fed independence. Here’s the picture up to yesterday before the letter to Cook, using the NY Fed’s (Adrian, Crump and Moench) model:
Confidence Drops (to above Consensus)
Conference Board Consumer Confidence at 97.4 (vs. 96.4 consensus):
Zandi’s Recession Map
From Newsweek today:
Constitutional and Economic Crises: Trump Assaults the Fed’s Independence
This is the best guarantee that cost pressures from tariffs and mass removals will manifest in wage-price spirals, combined with growth reducing economic policy uncertainty — particularly if the Trump administration does not adhere to Supreme Court rulings on this subject.
Non-Essentials, and the Business Cycle
Torsten Slok provides this illuminating picture of discretionary spending (y/y), by category.
Diffusion – Geographic, Indicator
Mark Zandi states that a third of the country is in recession. Here’re some alternative ways of measuring the weakness in the economy, first by geography, second by indicator.
Hamburgers for Me, But Not for Thee (Trump Hamburger Edition)
I was contemplating a hamburger cookout over the Labor Day holiday. Prospects?
NABE Survey Result on Economic Data Quality: “Worried”
If You Can’t Get Somebody on Lack of Qualifications, Then Make Something Up: Economics Edition
Back in 2022, a group of Republicans argued that Lisa D. Cook should not be appointed as a Fed governor because of her thin resume. How does that argument stand out in terms of whom the Trump administration has put in place in economic posts? In order to evaluate this, I first repost my 2022 Econbrowser post below: