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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

And You Want to Be My Latex Salesman? (cont’d)

From WSJ:

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This entry was posted on August 26, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Watch the Term Premium (10yr)

That’s Jared Bernstein’s advice, in the wake of Trump’s escalation of the war on Fed independence. Here’s the picture up to yesterday before the letter to Cook, using the NY Fed’s (Adrian, Crump and Moench) model:

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This entry was posted on August 26, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Confidence Drops (to above Consensus)

Conference Board Consumer Confidence at 97.4 (vs. 96.4 consensus):

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This entry was posted on August 26, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Zandi’s Recession Map

From Newsweek today:

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This entry was posted on August 26, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Constitutional and Economic Crises: Trump Assaults the Fed’s Independence

This is the best guarantee that cost pressures from tariffs and mass removals will manifest in wage-price spirals, combined with growth reducing economic policy uncertainty — particularly if the Trump administration does not adhere to Supreme Court rulings on this subject.

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This entry was posted on August 25, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Non-Essentials, and the Business Cycle

Torsten Slok provides this illuminating picture of discretionary spending (y/y), by category.

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This entry was posted on August 25, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Diffusion – Geographic, Indicator

Mark Zandi states that a third of the country is in recession. Here’re some alternative ways of measuring the weakness in the economy, first by geography, second by indicator.

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This entry was posted on August 25, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Hamburgers for Me, But Not for Thee (Trump Hamburger Edition)

I was contemplating a hamburger cookout over the Labor Day holiday. Prospects?

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This entry was posted on August 25, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

NABE Survey Result on Economic Data Quality: “Worried”

From NABE economic policy survey:

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This entry was posted on August 24, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

If You Can’t Get Somebody on Lack of Qualifications, Then Make Something Up: Economics Edition

Back in 2022, a group of Republicans argued that Lisa D. Cook should not be appointed as a Fed governor because of her thin resume. How does that argument stand out in terms of whom the Trump administration has put in place in economic posts? In order to evaluate this, I first repost my 2022 Econbrowser post below:

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This entry was posted on August 24, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Weekly Indicators of Economic Growth
  • Some Business Cycle Observables
  • Irony of Ironies: Trump’s War on the Big Mac
  • Policy Uncertainty during the Shutdown: Elevated
  • How Much Will We Lose Lending to Argentina?

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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