Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published by Project Syndicate.
In Search of the Section 232 (National Security) Report on Bathroom Vanities
This is what I found on the Bureau of Industrial Security/Dept of Commerce website:
Guest Contribution: “Does the Zillow rent measure help predict CPI rent inflation?”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by N. Kundan Kishor (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee).
EPU Spikes: Government Shutdowns vs. 9/11, Lehman, “Bleach”, “Liberation Day”
I was wondering what happens to measured economic policy uncertainty during government shutdowns. In point of fact, EPU (as measured by the Baker, Bloom and Davis index) rises, but the increase is on average dwarfed by events like Covid-19/”Bleach” advice, and “Liberation Day”.
“What to know about Trump’s new pharmaceutical tariff plan”: That We Don’t Know Anything
Really, you read “The Hill” article, you literally don’t know anything.
What Exactly Happened to the Dollar around “Liberation Day”: Illiquidity vs. No-Confidence
Some people argue the concurrent dollar decline and Treasury yield incrase was attributable to liquidity issues as repicing occurred against a backdrop of a rising share of price sensitive Treasury holders. Others that it was a flight away from the US dollar assets spurred by tariff uncertainty (see a discussion here). Here’s the picture people know, the dollar vs. US Treasurys:
Growth Reliance on the Tech Spending Boom
Two interesting pictures. First, the reliance of US GDP growth on Tech Spending.
Trade Policy Uncertainty
Nothing like a 100% tariff on (branded?) pharma to push up EPU-Trade
Sentiment Declines
U.Michigan index revised down from preliminary.
Business Cycle Indicators: Employment at or Below April 2025 Levels, Personal Income ex-Transfers Below
With the personal income for August, we have the following picture of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC). Personal income ex-current transfers and employment are more heavily weighted than other indicators.