The President invokes Section 232 for national security tariffs. From NYT:
Awaiting August Consumption and Personal Income
Nonfarm payroll employment, personal income essentially flat, civilian employment down, since 2025M04 (“Liberation Day” month).
EJ Antoni Channels “The [1929 UK] Treasury View”
$20 bn Credit Line to Argentina?
Why? Is Argentina central to US national security or economic interests?
Miran on r*
Yesterday, in a speech before the Economic Club of New York, Fed Governor Stephen Miran, on leave from the White House CEA, spoke on “Nonmonetary Forces and Appropriate Monetary Policy.” I was confused.
Guest Contribution: “FAIT, Shortfalls, and the Federal Reserve’s Strategy Review”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
The Availability of Quarterly GDP Data for the US: Memo to EJ Antoni
Referring to Dr. Antoni’s definition of recessions using quarterly data, here are the GDP data series for the US I am aware of.
Why Friends Don’t Let Friends Define Recessions as Two Consecutive Quarters of Negative GDP Growth
That’s exactly what EJ Antoni did in “Biden’s Recession” (August 1, 2022):
EJ Antoni: “factor in the millions of people missing from the labor market (don’t have jobs but are excluded from official unemployment calculation)”
That’s a plea from an X post a year ago. He presented various calculations (which are hard to replicate, because he does funny things like mixing CES numbers and CPS numbers), but indeed BLS calculates such a series: the U6 unemployment rate, which contrary to his assertion, economists are aware of. I will follow up on citing this series, even if Dr. Antoni has not in the past eight months.
Six Measures of Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Including Philadelphia Fed early benchmark, released today. Several series are below recent peaks, including the early benchmark.