FEDS note published on Friday:
Consumer Price Level – Alternatives
How’s dropping prices for everyday folks going?
How Much Longer Can We Trust Our Economic Statistics?
The Commerce Department eliminated two advisory committees on economic statistics gathering (see Marketplace). BLS received some additional funds in March as part of a continuing resolution; however the Trump budget proposal includes an 8% reduction in budget in nominal terms.
Why Trade Uncertainty – Illustrated
Here’re the Baker-Bloom-Davis categorical trade policy uncertainty measure and the Caldara et al. Trade Policy Uncertainty index. Why are these measures elevated? In my mind, why aren’t they even higher?
EJ Antoni/Heritage: “Back from the Brink: Trump’s Economy Soars Instead of Crashing”
What’s this guy smoking? From the article (originally Wash Examiner):
Guest Contribution: “Recession Detection Along the Anticipation-Precision Frontier”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Pascal Michaillat (UCSC).
“Groceries” under Trump
ERS predicts 2.2% increase in food-at-home prices in 2025. Continue reading
CEA: “Imported Goods Have Been Getting Cheaper Relative to Domestically Produced Goods”
That’s the title of a report by the Trump administration CEA earlier this month. It’s an interesting question whether this is the relevant question or not.
EJ Antoni on the No Tariff Pass Through Thesis
Thanks, Drumpf
WSJ mean survey forecast relative to 2023-2024 trend.