Answer: Not much. This point is critical in assessing how appropriate conditional forecasts of inflation were, especially those pertaining to 2022.
Weekly Macroeconomic Activity thru 10/8
As measured by NY Fed WEI, OECD Weekly Tracker, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI.
Why Did Russia Expand Its Invasion of Ukraine?
According to Senator Ron Johnson, this is the reason (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, March7, 2022):
Global Land Sea Temperature
From NOAA :
IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2022: “Countering the Cost of Living Crisis”
Guest Contribution: “Gauging Recessions with the Jobs-Worker Gap – Updated”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
Ron Johnson on Climate Change: “Can you really do anything about it?”
That’s the senator on the climate change issue, in tonight’s Wisconsin senatorial candidate debate. For him, it’s “not solvable.”
I’ve never heard him say it, but the logical conclusion must be that he’s awaitin’ for the Rapture, so no need to worry (at least for those who will be moving on).
Weekly Macro Indicators through 10/1
As measured by NY Fed WEI, OECD Weekly Tracker, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI.
The Employment Report and Business Cycle Indicators
Nonfarm payroll employment in September was slightly above consensus (263K vs 250K), showing continued growth. This is the picture of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus IHS-Markit monthly GDP.
The Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index Updated to 2020
We first constructed the index 20 years ago (Chinn and Ito, NBER WP No. 8967)! See the website for the data.