Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
Great Quotes from the Past
In order to judge the analytical abilities of an individual, it is sometimes useful to look back at their previous assessments. Consider this comment:
Interest Rate Paths for the Treasury Ten Year
As the pace of growth has picked up, forecasts of ten year Treasury yields have risen as well. Here are some recent ones.
The Delta Variant: Macro Implications
From DB, does the UK presage the US?
Temperature Anomaly – Northern Hemisphere
Here’s a time series plot of 12 month moving averages of monthly global temperature anomalies for the northern hemisphere, both for land and ocean (blue) and land (red), (in degree C). Note: June is not included…
The Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators
850K was the headline NFP number today. Just a reminder that, while a surprise on the upside (150K over Bloomberg consensus of just yesterday), employment is still down 4.4% relative to NBER peak.
GDP Forecasts from CBO and IMF [updated 7/2]
CBO released an Update to its Budget and Economic Outlook, while the IMF released a mission concluding statement for its Article IV review of the United States. Here are the implied GDP levels for year-end 2021 [and updated CBO potential GDP, h/t Paweł Skrzypczyński]
Business Cycle Indicators as of July 1
IHS-MarkIt monthly GDP for May down 0.1%, while Bloomberg consensus for June nonfarm payrolls is for a 700K increase.
Guest Contribution: ‘“False Imbalance” in Reporting on Economic Policy’
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.