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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Guest Contribution: “How far to full employment?”

Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.


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This entry was posted on July 6, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Great Quotes from the Past

In order to judge the analytical abilities of an individual, it is sometimes useful to look back at their previous assessments. Consider this comment:

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This entry was posted on July 5, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Interest Rate Paths for the Treasury Ten Year

As the pace of growth has picked up, forecasts of ten year Treasury yields have risen as well. Here are some recent ones.

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This entry was posted on July 4, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

The Delta Variant: Macro Implications

From DB, does the UK presage the US?

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This entry was posted on July 3, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Temperature Anomaly – Northern Hemisphere

Here’s a time series plot of 12 month moving averages of monthly global temperature anomalies for the northern hemisphere, both for land and ocean (blue) and land (red), (in degree C). Note: June is not included…

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This entry was posted on July 2, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

The Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators

850K was the headline NFP number today. Just a reminder that, while a surprise on the upside (150K over Bloomberg consensus of just yesterday), employment is still down 4.4% relative to NBER peak.

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This entry was posted on July 2, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

GDP Forecasts from CBO and IMF [updated 7/2]

CBO released an Update to its Budget and Economic Outlook, while the IMF released a mission concluding statement for its Article IV review of the United States. Here are the implied GDP  levels for year-end 2021 [and updated CBO potential GDP, h/t Paweł Skrzypczyński]

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This entry was posted on July 1, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators as of July 1

IHS-MarkIt monthly GDP for May down 0.1%, while Bloomberg consensus for June nonfarm payrolls is for a 700K increase.

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This entry was posted on July 1, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: ‘“False Imbalance” in Reporting on Economic Policy’

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy  School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.


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This entry was posted on July 1, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Inaugural FT-IGM survey of academic macroeconomists

From FT today, “Economists predict at least two US interest rate rises by end of 2023”:

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This entry was posted on June 30, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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