Today, we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Agustín Bénétrix and André Sanchez Pacheco (Trinity College Dublin).
Parsing the September Employment Release
Overall and private nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment surprised on the downside — but the fact that private missed by a smaller amount suggests that the slowdown is a little less pronounced than indicated by the headline number.
Predicting Global Imbalances on the Eve of Covid-19
Just out, my paper with Hiro Ito, “Requiem for ‘Blame It on Beijing'” [link thru Nov 28] (final version submitted on December 25, 2019):
Business Cycle Indicators with NFP
While there was a big downside NFP surprise (194K vs. Bloomberg consensus of 500K), the overall picture is not much altered:
Long Term Market-Based Inflation Expectations
Still averaging around 1.7%, for the next five years.
One Year Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations
The gap between household expectations and economists forecasts is widening [updated 3:30pm]
Valuation Effects on NIIP and Net Primary Income
The gap between the market valuation of the net international investment position (NIIP) and the cumulative current account has waxed and waned over the years (see the discussion in this post). Some of this effect is due to the dollar’s value. Does the same hold true for net primary income (investment and wage income)?
The 10 year-3 month Treasury Spread over 75 Years
For the past 50 years, inversion has preceded recession.
Forty Years of Real Treasury Rates
Preparing graphs for my course, I generated this graph which shows the trend decline in real (risk free) rates. Is there any reason to believe in an imminent reversal of the trend?
Business Cycle Indicators as of the Beginning of October
Consumption rises as personal income ex-transfers fall in August, and monthly GDP rebounds somewhat. Consumption remains 2.8% above 2020M02 levels (the latest NBER peak). Here’s the picture of the macroeconomy (for some key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC).