From Washington Post:
The unusually contagious delta coronavirus variant, first found in India, could become the dominant strain in the United States this summer, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Rochelle Walensky said Friday.
The Five Year Inflation Breakeven, the S&P500 and the Dollar
The S&P 500 dropped 1.3% on Friday; many accounts attributed the drop to Fed statements indicating an accelerated pace of rate hikes (especially Bullard’s comment), presumably in response to prospects for higher than previously anticipated inflation. Interestingly, market indicators on Friday are not supportive of that interpretation.
Wisconsin Economic Activity in May
Employment numbers for May were released for today.
Guest Contribution: “Globalisation and the Efficiency-Equity Trade-off”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Roland Beck, Virginia di Nino and Livio Stracca (all at the European Central Bank). The views expressed belong to the authors and are not necessarily shared by the institutions to which the authors are affiliated.
One Year CPI Inflation Expectations
The FOMC has upped its expectations of PCE inflation [Politico] [CR]. Here’s latest available CPI inflation expectations.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-June (and Retail Sales)
Industrial production was released yesterday, along with retail sales.
A Monetarist Manifesto for the Covid-19 Era
Juan E. Castañeda (Director) and Tim Congdon (Chairman) of the Institute for International Monetary Research at the University of Buckingham write today:
A Sugar High?
A lot of chatter about a sugar high coming from the passage of the American Rescue Plan, previous fiscal and monetary measures, combined with the increase in CPI inflation. Time to step back and assess.
Where to Find Business Cycle Dates for Different Economies
Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations.
Kevin Hassett Prediction: 7% y/y Inflation by December 2021
Remember this Kevin Hassett projection of Covid-19 deaths, from May 2020?