Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate and The Guardian.
A Funny Forecasting Story
Last night, I knew I was on tap to talk about Wisconsin GDP numbers today (Wisconsin Public Radio report here). I wondered what a naive forecast would imply, so I regressed first difference of log Wisconsin GDP on first difference of log US GDP and a lagged Wisconsin GDP first difference, to obtain this forecast…(red square)
Swing State Wisconsin: A LaFollette/WisPolitics Panel
A Panel presented by UW–Madison’s La Follette School of Public Affairs and WisPolitics.com (October 2), video here.
Wisconsin Q2 GDP
Wisconsin GDP declined by 32.6% (SAAR) in 2020Q2, compared to 31.4% for the US. BEA’s release today notes Wisconsin’s Q/Q growth in Q2 ranked 35th.
Business Cycle Indicators as of October 2
Nonfarm payroll employment under consensus, confirms the slowdown:
Business Cycle Indicators as of 1 October
Deceleration continues, according to some key indicators noted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC).
How Certain Are We that Excess Fatalities Are Declining
When each Week, Peak Excess Deaths Gets Pushed Further Out
Slow Recovery Continues: Private Employment
ADP and Bloomberg consensus says don’t expect surge, don’t expect decline…
The July Trade Release
Trade deficit grows. US-China goods trade deficit is now growing too.
Pondering Elevated Wisconsin Covid-19 Infection Rates Resulting from a Successful Judgment for Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty
Striking down Governor Evers’s mask mandate in the name of process means fatalities almost assuredly must be higher than otherwise. From AP today: