From Cullen Hendrix and Marcus Noland at Peterson Institute for International Economics, “Assessing Potential Economic Policy Responses to Genocide in Xinjiang” – Economic Policy Responses:
Wisconsin GDP in Q1
Wisconsin GDP has recovered largely in line with the US, but the bifurcation in economy remains.
Business Cycle Indicators as of June 27
Personal income and consumption for May were released last week, as well as the April manufacturing and trade industry sales figure.
Assessing Market Forecasts of Inflation (at 5 Year Horizon)
Joseph E. Gagnon and Madi Sarsenbayev at the Peterson Institute for International Economics have an interesting article on whether economists or markets are better at forecasting. They write:
GDP by State, 2021Q1
BEA released figures today. From the release:
Trade Sanctions on Use of Forced Labor in China
From Reuters:
Lumber Prices
A wild ride for futures means…
The Delta Variant and Prospects for Economic Activity
From Washington Post:
The unusually contagious delta coronavirus variant, first found in India, could become the dominant strain in the United States this summer, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Rochelle Walensky said Friday.
The Five Year Inflation Breakeven, the S&P500 and the Dollar
The S&P 500 dropped 1.3% on Friday; many accounts attributed the drop to Fed statements indicating an accelerated pace of rate hikes (especially Bullard’s comment), presumably in response to prospects for higher than previously anticipated inflation. Interestingly, market indicators on Friday are not supportive of that interpretation.
Wisconsin Economic Activity in May
Employment numbers for May were released for today.