Just released – results from the 3rd round of the IGM/FiveThirtyEight survey – growth paths and downside risks
Guest Contribution: “The effectiveness of macroprudential policies and capital controls against volatile capital inflows”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jon Frost (Bank for International Settlements), Hiro Ito (Portland State) and René van Stralen (De Nederlandsche Bank). The views expressed represent those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent those of De Nederlandsche Bank, or any other institutions the authors are affiliated with.
Updated Wisconsin Economic Outlook
Just released (even as the Trump administration retains its January forecast), Wisconsin Economic Outlook June update. Employment is now forecasted to rise, at a higher level than earlier predicted. The implied pace of employment growth is almost the same as in May.
“Kung Flu” in (Recent) Historical Perspective
On the 38th anniversary of Vincent Chin’s murder. From Politico:
President Donald Trump’s top spokesperson on Monday defended his use of the term “kung flu” to describe the novel coronavirus has sickened millions across the globe, asserting that the president was merely trying to emphasize the virus’ place of origin in China.
…
“The president does not believe that it is offensive to note that this virus came from China,” McEnany said Monday when asked about Conway’s condemnation of the term.
How Many Fatalities Will Governors and Localities Accept?
The shape of the recovery, when it comes, depends on the answer.
New cases are rising in some counties. Those counties account for a substantial share of US GDP.
Wisconsin Employment
Like the rest of the nation, employment in Wisconsin recovered slightly. Unanswered is how sustainable the recovery is.
State and Local Employment in the Covid Recession
Employment has been cut tremendously. With massive impending revenue shortfalls, state and local spending will continue to remain depressed, placing a drag on the economic recovery – just as austerity measures slowed the recovery from the Great recession.
Guest Contribution: “Defining recessions when negative growth is too common or too rare”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. He was a member of the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee for 25 years, with his term ending last fall. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate and in The Guardian.
Guest Contribution: “What Determines when a Recession is a Recession?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. He was a member of the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee for 25 years, with his term ending last fall. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate and in The Guardian.
Business Cycle Indicators, June 16, 2020
As of today, here are key monthly indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2019M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (5/29 release), Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
The NBER Business cycle Dating Committee has dated the most recent peak at February 2020 for monthly data, and 2019Q4 for quarterly. Jeffrey Frankel describes the reasoning for this date.
Q2 nowcast from Atlanta Fed is -48.5% (6/9), from NY Fed is -25.9% (6/12), St. Louis Fed is -38.9%(6/12), all SAAR. IHS Markit is -37.4% as of today.