[Original post, 12/3 5pm Pacific – updates graph for NFP, text in green]
That’s the message all around: The Hill “Slowing job growth raises fears of double-dip recession” (see also this), a CNN article has subheading “Double-dip recession fears”, Fortune has “TIAA CEO Roger Ferguson thinks we could be headed for a ‘double-dip recession'”, while CNBC “Virus surge is leading to a double-dip recession and dollar crash, economist Stephen Roach warns”.
The increase of 307 thousand in private nonfarm payrolls (as reported by ADP) — under Bloomberg expectations of 410 thousand — suggests further deceleration in employment growth.
When the Biden economic team members were announced, I wondered if there was any pattern to discern in the locus of Republican attacks. As far as I can tell, it’s not expertise, it’s not ideological bent, it’s not what school you went to. But here is a Venn diagram to help you identify what makes you a “no-go”.
With the release of monthly GDP numbers, we have the following picture of some of the key indicators followed by NBER:
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate .
As of 11/29. Can you tell a difference?
National Income and Product Accounts numbers that is.
As measured by the Philadelphia Fed coincident index.
With October personal income and September manufacturing and trade sales reported today, we have this picture of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee‘s key indicators:
Fatalities are rising; CDC determined fatalities consistently below alternative estimates in recent weeks; excess fatalities are revised upward (a lot, again).