The combination of yield curve inversion and high uncertainty is the exception, rather than the rule.
Continue readingSo Tired of Winning: US-China Trade Edition
Classes are about to start, so time to assemble slides on the trade outlook. I put together this graph of US goods exports to and imports from China (would’ve been through November, but for the Federal government shutdown – Jan 8 was release date). Please help me see the victory Mr. Trump keeps on talking about.
Continue readingGuest Contribution: “All you need to know about the drivers of capital flows”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Swarnali Ahmed Hannan, economist at the IMF. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management.
Continue reading
“Re-examining the Effects of Trading with China on Local Labor Markets: A Supply Chain Perspective”
Recession Indicators Reported as of 1/19/2019
I focus on the series highlighted by the NBER’s business cycle dating committee (BCDC).
Continue readingUS Recession Probability – Term Spread+EPU Model
Laurent Ferrara asks what’s the probability of a US recession in 12 months if one augments an utterly standard 10yr-3mo term structure model with US economic policy uncertainty (EPU) as measured by Baker, Bloom and Davis…
Continue readingIs California in Recession? (Part XIII)
December employment figures are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from a year ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Continue readingGoing by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
Today’s Event Study Example
Seldom do we see such market moving data.
Continue readingIf You Pay Inordinate Attention to the State Level Unemployment Series
You should start looking at the state level household employment series; (the unemployment rate is calculated using this variable). Here is Wisconsin’s, as of today’s release.
Continue reading