Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Emine Boz (IMF), Nan Li (IMF) and Hongrui Zhang (IDB). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, IDB, their Executive Boards, or the managements of those organizations.
That’s the title of a special issue of the Journal of International Money and Finance that’s just been published.
Continue readingIt’s kind of limiting to look only at recessions as predicted by the yield curve. What about growth?
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Update, 5:30pm Pacific:
Forward looking indicators continue to suggest a slowdown.
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Ashoka Mody, Charles and Marie Visiting Professor in International Economic Policy, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University. Previously, he was Deputy Director in the International Monetary Fund’s Research and European Departments.
December coincident indices from the Philadelphia Fed are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from a year ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release provides an opportunity to revisit this question (the December employment figures are discussed here). It’s (still) unlikely that a recession occurred in 2017. However, growth has decelerated at the end of 2018.
Continue readingShort term growth prospects are “baked in”, from the Walker/Vos/Fitzgeral regime. Interestingly, we have mixed signals from economic indicators (and no signal from some that are delayed — thanks, Trump!).
Continue readingFrom NYT, “Foxconn Is Reconsidering Plan for Wisconsin Factory“:
Continue readingFoxconn, the giant Taiwan-based company that announced plans for a $10 billion display-making factory in Wisconsin, now says it is rethinking the project’s focus because of “new realities” in the global marketplace.
Today, we are pleased to present a guest post written by Charles Engel, Professor of Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison.
Below are the peer-reviewed journal articles authored or co-authored by Stephen Moore, CNN “economic expert”:
This list might be incomplete.