For whatever reasons — capital outflows, PBoC non-intervention — the yuan has depreciated substantially since the Trump administration has announced Section 301 actions against China. This has implications not just for the CNY/USD exchange rate, but also other East Asian currencies.
EconoFact: “Threats to U.S. Agriculture from U.S. Trade Policies”
EconoFact, today:
The agriculture sector in the United States depends upon exports for its vitality. Sales of U.S. agricultural products abroad are responsible for 20 percent of U.S. farm income, supporting more than one million American jobs on and off the farm, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The three biggest buyers of American agricultural products are China, Canada, and Mexico. Yet trade with these three countries faces heightened uncertainty. The Trump Administration is in the process of renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico, which includes the option of exiting the deal altogether. In addition, the United States imposed a number of sanctions on our other trading partners, including China. These sanctions have spurred retaliation that has already harmed some agricultural exports.
Who Is Kudlow?
Is he Willoughby or is he Hillenkoetter, or neither?
Comparing MN and WI along Five Variables
In a recent paper, Ryan LeCloux and I use five macroeconomic measures to assess state economic performance (post). Here, I use updated data to evaluate Minnesota’s economic performance vis à vis Wisconsin: GDP, personal income, nonfarm payroll employment, civilian employment, and coincident indices and “adjusted” coincident indices.
The Wisconsin Macro Outlook
The June coincident index flattens out; the leading index, released today, predicts a 1.1% growth over the next six months. Minnesota’s forecasted growth is over twice that rate.
Who Will Relent – Xi or Trump? On Actual and Perceived Payoff Matrices
NEC Chair Kudlow in response to the Chinese threat to impose tariffs on an additional $60 billion worth of goods (from Bloomberg).
“Their economy’s weak, their currency is weak, people are leaving the country. Don’t underestimate President Trump’s determination to follow through.”
Trade Policy Uncertainty in Our Times (II): Highest Level in Two Decades
Just in case you were still wondering.
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A Short History of Turning Points in Wisconsin
Ever since the Walker Administration ended the issuance of the Wisconsin Economic Outlook (last issue May 2015), those of us outside of the government have been a little in the dark when trying to assess state level economic conditions in a systematic manner. In a recent paper (updated version 8/1), Ryan LeCloux and I assess how various macroeconomic aggregates track the Wisconsin economy at higher-than-annual frequency. Investigating the behavior of these series yields the following graph.
A Great Second Quarter Report — But Beware the Context
Following up on Jim’s post on the GDP release, here are four observations.
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Great second-quarter GDP report
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 4.1% annual rate in the second quarter. That’s significantly better than the 2.2% average growth we’ve seen since the Great Recession ended in 2009, and is also a little above the 3.1% average for the U.S. economy over the last 70 years.
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