A reader writes (in discussing the Taylor rule):
Like [the] price elasticity of demand, we have an analytical approach that is appealing in theory, but so ill defined as to be useless in practice.
Wow. I haven’t read anything like that since I read Anti-Samuelson. Believe it or not, this was written by a person who purports to do policy analysis.
“I don’t like all of this work that we’re putting into the economy and then I see rates going up.”
and a tweet on Saturday:
Tightening now hurts all that we have done.
In a new paper, Ryan LeCloux (Legislative Reference Bureau) and I discuss the challenges to assessing the economic outlook at the state level. We examine the various indicators available to track macroeconomic indicators at the higher than annual frequency. We find that quarterly GDP at the state level is correlated with different macroeconomic indicators for different states. Hence, tracking the economic activity of each state accurately might require focus on different variables.
Just in case you were wondering.
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On CNN today, as Stephen Moore was trying to spin the point that presidents have always tried to pressure the Fed, he made the assertion (maybe not verbatim):
Obama never got us close to 3% growth…
I expect a downward revision tomorrow for today’s value, but tomorrow’s value?
Indications are that a week from tomorrow, we will receive a very strong report on GDP growth (Jim will have his recession probabilities assessment soon after the release). (GS at 4.1%, MacroAdv at 5.0%, NY Fed at 2.8%, FRB Atlanta NowGDP at 4.5%.) At the same time, we are seeing a flattening of the yield curve. I urge observers to not take as “hard data” the advance release of any macro data as firm. Here is a cautionary tale.
Ed Hanson writes, after plotting the data:
The graph shows, in general, Minnesota’s increasing gap of per capita income over Wisconsin since at least 1970. It is not just since 2011 that this trend began.
This observation is right in a way — wrong in a deeper, more economically interesting, way. Investigation highlights the usefulness of the log function.
Reader Ed Hanson accuses me of misleading people about the growth rate of per capita income in Minnesota and Wisconsin, by omitting results on trends in long samples, and focussing on short samples. Personally, I don’t recall plotting per capita income, but rather per capita income (which differs from GDP), but here for the interested reader is a graph of the relevant data, for the longest span readily available.
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Some see this as inversion imminent.