Skip to content

Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Wall Street Haruspicy Watch

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 14, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Do Tariffs Matter? Soybean Edition

A year ago, there was some debate (e.g., S. Kopits) whether tariffs on US soybeans would have any impact on US soybean exports — that is since soybeans were highly substitutable, US soybean exports would be redistributed w/o an impact on prices.

From Deutsche Bank today:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 13, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

10yr-3mo Spread Barely Budges as 10yr-2yr Approaches Zero

This despite Trump’s temporary delay on additional China tariffs.

This entry was posted on August 13, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Teaching Begins Early This Fall: News, Efficient Markets Hypothesis, Asset Prices


Figure 1: September 2019 corn futures, accessed 8/13/2019. Source: Barchart.com.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 13, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Term Spreads Plumb New Depths as Long Yield Drops

A picture is worth a thousand words.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 12, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “RMB reaches 7.0; US names China a manipulator”

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate on August 9th.

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 12, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

On the Eve of Recession? Five Graphs from Two Courses

I get to teach Public Affairs 854, “Macroeconomic Policy and International Financial Regulation” and Economics 435 “The Financial System” this fall. There’s a cosmic confluence this year, in terms of the subject:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 11, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Undervaluation, Misalignment, and China in the 2019 IMF External Sector Report

Donald Trump’s pronouncements can typically be taken as contra-indicators. In other words, what he says is invariably wrong. So, you gotta wonder on China…
Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 11, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

SitRep from the Midwest

No end to “the blip“. From today’s Des Moines Register:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 9, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

The Journal of Economic Perspectives in the Classroom

A collection of JEP articles readers have cited as useful for instruction, by category:

Continue reading →

This entry was posted on August 8, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Post navigation

← Older posts
Newer posts →

Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

Folow us on Twitter

  • James Hamilton
  • Menzie Chinn

Recent Posts

  • FX and Gold Reserves in Q2
  • WSJ Survey: Below Trend Growth
  • Why a Missed Release Is Sometimes Problematic
  • Flying Blind, Graphically Illustrated
  • On Immigration Policies and the Ag Sector

Categories

Archives

Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

Proudly powered by WordPress