With increasing term spreads (or, steepening of the yield curve), fears of imminent recession have waned. Does this make sense?
Manufacturing Employment: BLS vs. ADP (updated to incl. Nov BLS)
Figure 1: Manufacturing employment, in 000’s, s.a., from BLS (blue), and from ADP (brown), on log scale. Light green shading denotes data that will be benchmark-revised in February release. Source: BLS and ADP via FRED. [Updated 12/7 to include November BLS data]
Manufacturing peaked a little earlier in the ADP data (June) vs. BLS (August), but ADP suggests a much less pronounced rise to peak during 2019.
Guest Contribution: “Is capital flow management effective? Evidence based on U.S. monetary policy shocks”
An Event Study: Trade Truce-Part 1, or Not?
See if you can find when Trump makes his statement about trade negotiations with China. Winning!
Guest Contribution: “Let’s Go Back to Good Old Tariff-Cutting”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate.
Trade Policy Uncertainty: US, China
Source: policyuncertainty.com
Foxconn as Case Study of Targeted Development Subsidy
Or, “Ready, fire, aim”. From Mitchell et al. “The Economics of a Targeted Economic Development Subsidy,” Mercatus Center:
Odds on USMCA Passage by End-2019
Guest Contribution: “A non-Gaussian macro world”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of International Economics, SKEMA Business School, Paris), and Director, International Institute of Forecasting.
Bleg: Examples of Bad Econometrics to Teach
I’ve been tapped to teach the second course in the statistics/econometrics sequence at the La Follette School. I need examples of excruciatingly bad econometrics to discuss. Please post your suggestions as comments. In 2016, I assigned students to examine the empirical content of “business conditions” indices, like Stephen Moore’s/ALEC Economic Outlook rankings.