Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Iván Kataryniuk (Banco de España) and Jaime Martínez-Martín (European Central Bank) summarizing their chapter in the book International Macroeconomics in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis edited by L. Ferrara, I. Hernando and D. Marconi. The views expressed here are those solely of the author and do not reflect those of their respective institutions.
USDA Speaks
From Quarterly Agricultural Export Forecast, released yesterday.
Fiscal year (October/September) 2019 agricultural exports are projected at $141.5 billion, down $1.9 billion from fiscal year 2018 and $3.0 billion from the August 2018 forecast, largely due to decreases in soybeans and cotton. Soybean export volumes are down because of declining Chinese purchases from the United States as a result of trade tensions, and as a record U.S. crop continues to pressure soybean prices lower.
“Failed tax-cut experiment in Kansas should guide national leaders”
That’s the title of an oped by Heather Boushey in The Hill. There’s not much to disagree with in the article, but I think one graph of Kansas employment would’ve really driven home the conclusion.
Guest Contribution: “Trade War is Not a Reason to Ease Money”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate on November 26th.
So…Tired…of…Winning (Trade Deficit Edition)
I’m using Mr. Trump’s definition. Trade deficit overall (NIPA definition) and bilateral with China both increasing.
Fourth National Climate Assessment
Despite the Trump Administration’s best attempts to bury this report, you should read it.
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This Doesn’t Look Like a China Getting Ready to Capitulate to Trump
From Bloomberg:
Source: Bloomberg, 21 November 2018.
Just sayin’…
Side observation: From my reading of the article, the Chinese approach to “freedom of the financial press” is very Trumpian. Or alternatively, the Trump approach to freedom of the press is very Xi-ian.
Introducing DBnomics
Researchers have long relied upon the St. Louis Fed’s FRED and ALFRED databases for (primarily) US series. Now, Banque de France, CEPREMAP and France Stratégie have launched a new free database of international macro data, DBnomics.
When Can We Stop Winning? Midwest Ag Edition
“I’ve never seen things this bad,” Altom said. “I know several farmers who hired lawyers, to see if they can sue over the [soybean and corn storage] pricing and fees issues.”
“Who is Paying for the Trade War with China?”
That’s the title of a new report published by a consortium of European academic institutes, and written by Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek and Gabriel Felbermayr. I don’t have a problem with the analysis, which is mostly straightforward. It’s just a problem with the title.