Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
“Trade Wars Are Good, and Easy to Win”: Soybean Edition
I am dubious. End-market year soybean stocks at record highs.
Does the Fed Care about the Rest-of-the-World?
That’s a title I borrowed from a paper by Barry Eichengreen; the actual title is “International environment and US monetary policy: a textual analysis” written by Laurent Ferrara and Charles-Emmanuel Teuf:
What role does the international environment play in shaping US monetary policy decisions? To measure its influence, we construct an international indicator extracted from minutes of Fed monetary policy committee meetings.
Political Calculations on Soda Tax Concludes: No Externalities Internalized
Finally, Ironman at Political Calculations understands what an externality is. Instead of this:
If a deadweight loss exists, it represents the amount of economic activity that has been directly lost because of the imposition of the tax, which tells us the degree to which the city’s economy may have shrunk as a result.
Guest Contribution: “Trump Renews Charges of Chinese Currency Manipulation”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate.
Using Gov. Walker’s Gold Standard QCEW, Has 250K Jobs Been Added?
Maybe. But not as of 2018M01.
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Is California in Recession? (Part IX)
August employment figures are out. Time to re-evaluate this mid-December Political Calculations assertion that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release provides an opportunity to revisit this question (the 2018Q1 state GDP figures are discussed here). It’s (still) unlikely that a recession occurred.
Who Could’ve Known “Crash Brexit” Would Be Problematic?
In the aftermath of the Salzburg summit, where the Chequers plan was dismissed by the EU, and PM May demanded “respect”, the pound has plunged.
“Spreads between U.S. & Brazil Soybean Export Prices Widen to a Record”
That’s the caption to this graph:
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Huzzah! Three and a Half Years Late, Walker Hits His +250K Jobs Promise
As Wisconsinites will recall, as late as August 2013, Governor Walker was reiterating his promise to create 250,000 new private sector jobs by the end of his first term (January 2015). As of July 2018, Wisconsin’s private sector net job creation surpassed Walker’s promised target — a full 3.5 years late.
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