One criticism of the use of the term spread model to forecast recession in current times is that this time is different. [1] [2] [3] In particular, due to quantitative easing, the term premium is lower than in past episodes. Hence, in this interpretation, an inverted yield curve no longer signals as much future depressed interest rates as in the past.
Intraday PredictIt Probability of Recession Hits 46%
Hit that value earlier today, before dropping to 42% (recession in Trump’s first term, that is)
Market Assessment of Prospects for Resolution of the US-China Trade Dispute by September 2020
Going from August 22rd to 23rd, front month futures dropped 12-6; the August 2020 futures price (which are an unbiased predictor of one year ahead spot prices) was down 8-4. Hence, farmers should prepare for a long, tough, period of self-inflicted (by the administration) damage.
Prediction Markets on Recession by January 2021
PredictIt, accessed 4pm Pacific today:
Who’s Forecasting a (Technical*) Recession?
I keep on hearing that economists are lousy at forecasting, citing the An, Jalles, and Loungani (2018) analysis. Recently, we heard Larry Kudlow claim that nobody was predicting a recession in December 2007, when he was dismissing the possibility. Without disputing the consensus is lousy at detecting turning points in real time, we can check if all economists are.
CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision: NFP
Down 501K in March. Private NFP down 514K.
Back-of-the-Envelope Calculation of Trump Induced Dollar Appreciation
If a Recession Occurs, Plenty of People Will Have Predicted It
NABE survey, WSJ survey, Bloomberg survey, PredictIt
Recession Probability If the Rest of August Is Like the First Half
…using plain vanilla 10yr-3mo probit regression, over 1986M01-2019M08 period, using data shown below in Figure 1
“The data are pretty clear that we are not in a recession”
Surprisingly, that’s not a quote from Larry Kudlow on today’s news shows. Rather that is then Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Ed Lazear on May 8, 2008. Just to remind people, that is 5 months after the recession start determined by NBER. Continue reading