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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

“A Third of a Century of Currency Expectations Data: The Carry Trade and the Risk Premium”

That’s the title of a new paper, coauthored with Jeffrey Frankel, using data extending back to August 1986.

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This entry was posted on January 8, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Jindal-nomics Illustrated

In response to my graph of Louisiana GDP, Manfred asks:

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This entry was posted on January 7, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Measured Uncertainty and Treasury Spreads, 1/7/19

Figure 1: 10 year-2 year Treasury spread, % (red), 1/7 observation at 1pm Eastern, and Economic Policy Uncertainty index (teal), and 7 day centered moving average (gray bold). Sources: Federal Reserve Board and policyuncertainty.com .
This entry was posted on January 7, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

We Can Make Mexico Pay for the Wall

Just declare an International Emergency. From US Treasury,
U.S.C. annotated, Title 50. War and National Defense Chapter 35. International Emergency Economic Powers :

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This entry was posted on January 6, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Treasury Spreads and Measured Policy Uncertainty

Do they matter?

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This entry was posted on January 5, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Employment Estimates in the Run-up to the 2001 Recession

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This entry was posted on January 4, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Employment Release: We Are Now Back to the 2016 Stochastic Trend

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This entry was posted on January 4, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Louisiana’s Economic Progress since 2005

It’s striking. GDP correlates with oil in recent years, but not always, so why didn’t the magic of Jindalnomics work?

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This entry was posted on January 4, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Will Dave Brat Do More Damage in Academia than in Congress?

Brat to Liberty University…

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This entry was posted on January 3, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “New Year questions about the economic outlook”

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

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This entry was posted on January 3, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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