It’s striking. GDP correlates with oil in recent years, but not always, so why didn’t the magic of Jindalnomics work?
Continue readingWill Dave Brat Do More Damage in Academia than in Congress?
Brat to Liberty University…
Continue readingGuest Contribution: “New Year questions about the economic outlook”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
Continue readingIs Housing the Business Cycle, 2019?
In 2007, Ed Leamer presented “Housing is the business cycle” at Jackson Hole. In 2018, Leamer himself doesn’t think a recession is imminent, but the following graph certainly gives one pause for thought.
Continue readingHappy New Year!
Figure 1: Baker Bloom and Davis Economic Policy Uncertainty index, centered 7 day moving average (gray, left scale), and ten year – three month Treasury spread, % (blue, right scale) and ten year – two year spread, % (red, right scale). Source: policyuncertainty.com, FRED and author’s calculations.
The Year in Review, 2018: Blowhards at Bay?
Last year’s recap was subtitled “Fighting against the normalization of lying”. At least this year, lies are called lies. Now it’s time to shun the liars, and relegate them to where they belong.
Continue readingTreasury Spreads and Measured Economic Policy Uncertainty for 2018
A correlation shows up in the last month or so:
Guest Contribution: “Six right predictions in 2018”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
In the Space of Two Weeks, the 10yr-3mo Spread Has Halved, and Is Now at 0.35%
That’s all you need to know.
Update, 1/1/2019: Bob Flood sends this graph which — as he characterizes it — “seems to good to be true” (in a social scientist sort of way).
Is California in Recession? (Part XII)
November coincident indices from the Philadelphia Fed are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from a year ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release provides an opportunity to revisit this question (the November employment figures are discussed here). It’s (still) unlikely that a recession occurred.