Rising in 2023Q4:
“People … have not faced this kind of uncertainty since the 1930s”
That’s from ZeroHedge. Contra, here are some data.
Monetary Policy Rates around the World
Some pictures for Econ 442, monetary policy module.
Wisconsin Employment Outperforming DoR November Forecast
As the nation outperforms, so too does Wisconsin. Employment exceeds the DoR November forecast.
Math Is Hard!
Steven Kopits writes:
On the other hand, interest payments have risen from 9.5% of GDP in 2020 to 13.6% of GDP in 2023. That is a whopping 4% of GDP in just increased interest payments. Further, as the incumbent debt is rolling off and has to be refinanced, interest payments will continue to rise, and fall with considerable delay even when inflation and interest rates return to lower levels.
Estimates of r*
Who thinks it’s 4% or above?
Why I Don’t Put Too Much Weight on the State Level Household Survey Employment Series
Just a picture:
Wisconsin Employment in January
January employment numbers, incorporating annual revisions, are out for Wisconsin. Here’s a picture of some indicators.
The Employment Situation Release and Business Cycle Indicators for February
January NFP employment growth surprises on the upside, at +275 vs. +198 thousands consensus. With combined downward revisions in the prior two months totaling 168 thousand, the level of employment is just about consistent with implied consensus. Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.
February 2024 Real-Time Sahm Rule Indicator
Still below threshold: Continue reading