Personally, I’m not convinced, but if you are, then consider this graph:
If You Believe the CPS Employment Series Turns Down before the CES, Be Afraid
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What Other BLS Commissioners Should’ve Been Fired (But Weren’t) Using the Trump Criterion?
Here’re other prior 2 month cumulative revisions, normalized by employment (after all, the country has been growing for the past 100 years):
Core Inflation Nowcasts and Tracking
From Cleveland Fed, Goldman Sachs, plus Bloomberg consensus – generally, acceleration in the q/q annualized:
Miran to Fed: What Are His Views?
Lots of stories regarding the impact of CEA Chair’s temporary appointment to the vacancy at the Fed Board. For an insight into Dr. Miran’s views, here’s a list of his peer reviewed articles.
“And you want to be my latex salesman?” (BLS edition) [updated 8/9/25]
Manufacturing on the Ropes?
Manufacturing employment, hours, capacity utilization down since March 2025 (pre-“Liberation Day”); manufacturing production (Fed index) flat since March.
CalculatedRisk (Still) on Recession Watch
Bill McBride’s assessment here.
Even *More* Depressing Pictures from the Labor Market
You think the official BLS NFP series is worrying, consider the alternatives:
How Are Wisconsin Exports, Manufacturing Doing under Trump Trade War 2.0?
Discussed the employment numbers on WPR this morning. One question came up, which inspired this post – how’s Wisconsin doing, tradewise, given the states’ trade/manufacturing dependence.