Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99.
CBO deficit projections
The U.S. federal deficit fell from around $1.1 trillion for fiscal year 2012 to under $700 billion for 2013, and is projected by the Congressional Budget Office to be below $500 B by 2015. Although it sounds like continuing improvement, the CBO’s projected path is actually unsustainable. Here’s why.
Assessing the Widening Wisconsin-US Gap
The cumulative growth gap since January 2011 between the US and Wisconsin coincident indices was 2.2% in December. The forecast indicates a continued widening to 2.8% in six months time.
Observations on the GDP Release and the CBO Outlook
The output gap remains large, even as the external sector supports growth; this outcome is partly due to excessively rapid fiscal consolidation
Eswar Prasad on the “The Dollar Trap”
“[I]n the aftermath of the financial crisis, U.S. policies and a dysfunctional international monetary system have paradoxically strengthened the dollar’s importance.”
Economics of Bitcoin
Bitcoin is a digital currency for which no government, bank, or corporation takes responsibility. Like many others, I was curious to learn how it works and why it seems to be succeeding.
Big oil companies spending more and producing less
From the Wall Street Journal:
U.S. economy gaining momentum
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.2% annual rate in the fourh quarter. That’s two quarters in a row now of above average growth. Given recent experience, that sounds pretty good.
The Reliability of Chinese GDP, Again
Is growth really collapsing?
Interpreting Recent Emerging Market Currency Movements
Expectations of central bank policies are only part of the story