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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

“Economists for Harris” vs. “Economists for Trump”

Here’s the letter in support of Harris. Here’s the letter in support of Trump (2020).

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This entry was posted on September 29, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

ZeroHedge: “Mystery Of Upward GDP Revision Solved”

“You Are All $500 Billion Richer Now According To A Revised Biden Admin Spreadsheet” (9/27/2024). I won’t dissect the non-arguments in the article. I’ll just observe that the GDP annual update has brought the GDP series much more in line with the Philadelphia Fed’s tracking of output, in its Coincident Index.

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This entry was posted on September 28, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Main Street Agenda town hall meeting in Milwaukee: Inflation

A Main Street Agenda town hall meeting on inflation to be held Tuesday, Oct. 15, from 6 to 8 p.m. at the Clinton Rose Senior Center, 3045 N. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Drive. Register here.

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This entry was posted on September 28, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Misery Index, 2020M12 and 2024M08: 8.0% vs. 6.8%

With latest available data:

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This entry was posted on September 28, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Consumer Sentiment and Expectations (Rev’d) in September

Upward revisions for both indices from University of Michigan Survey of Consumers:

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This entry was posted on September 28, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “What we now know about Jimmy Carter’s presidency”

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate. 


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This entry was posted on September 28, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Instantaneous PCE Core Inflation below 2%

With August data:

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This entry was posted on September 27, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators – August 2024 and Annual Updates

Still hard to see the recession in (preliminary) August 2024 data.

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This entry was posted on September 27, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Betting Markets on the Election, Again

Perhaps someone can tell me why we get such different bets depending on platform (and why doesn’t RealClearPolitics include PredictIt)?

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This entry was posted on September 26, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Decomposing the Revision to GDO

One of the interesting aspects of the annual revision is that, contrary to what happens with typical (non-annual) revisions, GDI moved toward GDP, rather than the reverse.

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This entry was posted on September 26, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Business Cycle Indicators – June Employment Release and May Monthly GDP
  • Private NFP Downside Surprise
  • ADP Below Consensus – What Does It Mean?
  • The Return (Again) of Supply Side Economics – CEA Edition
  • Your Daily Reminder: Prices of Import Competing Goods Rise with Tariffed Imported Goods Prices

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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