Counterproductive Tendencies in Wisconsin Policy Debates

Reader John (sometimes Jack), who disapproves of my posts on Wisconsin, politely asks:

Dr Chinn,
Would you be willing to flesh out your background so as to better understand your positions in your research and blog postings?
Where were you born?
Where were your parents born?
Do your parents espouse your same political leanings?
Do you intend to remain in Wisconsin after you retire?
If not, where do you intend to move to?

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Econbrowser recession indicator index up to 30.5%

The BEA released today its comprehensive national account revisions, according to which real GDP grew at a 1.7% annual rate in 2013:Q2. Although this was above the 1.1% rate that many analysts were expecting, the new estimates also revise down the growth rates that were previously reported for 2012:Q4 and 2013:Q1, with the growth rate over these quarters now estimated to have been 0.1% and 1.1%, respectively, down from the 0.4% and 1.8% figures that had been reported last month.

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Prescience, 2007 edition

Having coauthored an entire book on the financial crisis of 2008 (Lost Decades, with Jeffry Frieden) I think that one of the most important qualities for a policymaker is the ability to look forward, and assess potential dangers and understand why those dangers arise. Looking back to 2007, it’s of interest to see who foresaw the impact of adverse feedback loops in the financial system as risk was repriced.

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