It’s an understatement to say there has been a lot of dismay at the drop in Chinese year-on-year GDP growth, from 7.7% to 7.5%. Figure 1 below, from the IMF’s Article IV report released on July 17, shows data only through 2013Q1, although the forecast for 2013Q2 looks about right to me.
Brent-WTI spread disappears– for now
On Friday the benchmark crude oil traded in the central United States (West Texas Intermediate) sold for the same price as the benchmark European crude (Brent). That’s the first time that’s happened in almost three years. But I don’t expect the situation to persist.
The Wisconsin Economic Outlook: July 2013
Key numbers: 79 thousands and 81 thousands
It’s Been a Hot July
As noted by NBC News, but it’s absolutely, positively, definitely got nothing to do with global climate change (!!!).
Slow 2013Q2 Growth: The Shadow of the Sequester?
Macroeconomic Advisers estimates second quarter growth at around 0.6% SAAR. [0] Is it because of the sequester and the ending of the payroll tax rate reduction? In part, Jeff Frankel thinks so; see also [1]. Macroeconomic Advisers had predicted something over a 1% reduction in growth rate (SAAR) relative to baseline in the second quarter [2]
What Were They Thinking?
As the Fed sets in place the road map to withdrawing monetary stimulus, I wonder how it is that so many believed the Fed’s implementation of unconventional monetary policy would lead to surging high inflation. Examples include House Budget Committee Chair Paul Ryan, who stated in November 2008 2010:
Assessing the Trilemma
From “Rounding the Corners of the Policy Trilemma: Sources of monetary policy autonomy,” by Michael Klein and Jay hambaugh:
A central result in international macroeconomics is that a government cannot simultaneously opt for open financial markets, fixed exchange rates, and monetary autonomy; rather, it is constrained to choosing two of these three. …
Inflation and Debt
From Debt and Incomplete Financial Markets: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting, by Kevin Sheedy (LSE), presented at the NBER Summer Institute:
This paper has shown how a monetary policy of nominal GDP targeting facilitates efficient risk
sharing in incomplete financial markets where contracts are denominated in terms of money….
Ever Expanding Government Employment Assessed, Yet Again
(It is expanding as long as down is redefined as up)
How Competitive Is China?
Newly developed indicators suggest eroding international competitiveness.