WisGOP thinks so.
“The Predictive Power of the Term Spread and Financial Variables for Economic Activity across Countries”: The US
From a new paper, NBER WP No. 32084, by myself and Laurent Ferrara, out today.
Guest Contribution: “Helping Ukraine is a National Security No-brainer”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate on January 25th..
Nowcasts and Alternative Output Measures
GDPNow and NY Fed nowcasts as of today:
Business Cycle Indicators at January’s End
On the back of yesterday’s GDP release (discussed by Jim), real personal consumption continues to rise, beating consensus (+0.5% m/m vs. +0.3% Bloomberg), while nominal personal income hits consensus at +0.3%. Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP.
Another solid GDP report
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.3% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That growth brings the level of GDP 3.1% above the value a year ago. Those numbers are right at the historical average GDP growth over the last 70 years of 3.1%, and well above the 2% average over the last 20 years. The year 2023 ended up far better than many people expected.
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Re-Post: “Distributional Data from the National Income and Product Accounts”
Reader JohnH is surprised that BEA reports distributional NIPA data, despite having commented on a blogpost on the subject two and a half years ago (he commented three times!)
In an unmentioned recent development, BEA is actually providing data on income distribution, something which should be of interest to macro students.
Given that some folks do not remember what they’ve read and commented on, I re-post, with link to updated information.
WisGOP Can’t Count
Teaching Macro 2024
First time teaching undergrad macro (elective, after intermediate macro) in three years, so I thought time to revise the syllabus (Econ 442) to account for new issues (compare against Fall 2001).
EV and Hybrid Sales, thru December
EV’s flat. Hybrids up. From Kevin Drum.