Or, Palin and Eichengreen on Infrastructure Investment
In a recent speech, Sarah Palin, stated that:
… “The federal government is spending too much, borrowing too much, growing and controlling too much,” she said.
The employment news is good (I think)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday that the unemployment rate has fallen from 9.8% in November to 9.0% in January, as big a two-month drop as we’ve seen in the last 50 years (hooray!). But in the same report, BLS indicated that their seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of Americans employed on nonfarm payrolls increased in January by an anemic 36,000 (oh dear!). Reconciling the very contradictory claims is even harder than usual, but I’ll give it a try.
Joe Lawler Does Economic Analysis, Again
I had thought that after these posts [1] [2] [3] [4], Mr. Lawler had foregone further attempts at macroeconomic analysis. Alas, no. In Obama’s Job Search, Mr. Lawler states:
The Financial Crisis: Foreseeable and Preventable
From the NY Times Room for Debate forum Was the Crisis Avoidable, Jeffry Frieden writes:
The Real Value of the Yuan and Inflation
A recent NYT article highlighted the fact that international competitiveness (as defined by macroeconomists) depends on not just the nominal exchange rate, but also relative price levels. From Inflation in China May Limit U.S. Trade Deficit by Keith Bradsher:
Inflation is starting to slow China’s mighty export machine, as buyers from Western multinational companies balk at higher prices and have cut back their planned spring shipments across the Pacific.
An improving economic outlook
Looking a little better each day.
Thoughts on Rebalancing, Capital Flows, Commodities
Those were some of the topics of a recent Asia-Europe Economic Forum conference that took place at the French Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry, entitled “G20: Completing the Agenda”, organized by Agnès Bénassy-Quéré and co-sponsored by CEPII, DG-ECFIN, and the Ministry of Economy, Finance and Industry.
UK: No Expansionary Fiscal Contraction Yet
The UK can be seen as a kind of test case for the proposition that contractionary fiscal policy can induce an economic expansion, a proposition forwarded by most recently Alesina and Ardana (2010) [wp version] (following up earlier work by Alesina and Perroti). So far, admittedly early in the process, the evidence is not consistent with the view of expansionary contraction. Here’s Gavyn Davies’ view:
…The statistics were expected to show a significant slowdown in output growth, but nothing like the drop of 0.5% in real GDP (-2 per cent quarter-on-quarter annualised) which was actually announced this morning. …
Geopolitical unrest and world oil markets
Change is on the way in the Arab world, with Egypt the latest focal point. Here I review recent events and their implications for world oil markets.
A modestly brighter GDP report
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.2% during the fourth quarter of 2010. That’s about the historically average growth rate. But we expect much better than average at this point in the cycle, and need much better than average to make real progress with the unemployment rate.