Two Days before GDP Q3 Release: What Remains of the 2022H1 Recession Thesis?
Monthly indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus GDP and GDO, plus IHS-Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP:
Search Results for: steven kopits
Hurricane Maria and Puerto Rico 5 Years Later
Now seems a useful time to re-assess some of the pronouncements made in the wake of the tragic disaster that struck Puerto Rico in September 2017. First, fatalities of Americans (contra Mr. Trump’s seeming assertion these were not American) were much higher than some commentators claimed. Second, arguments that economic policies undertaken in 2016 and […]
Business Cycle Indicators as of 9/3: On the Upswing Again (If They Were Ever in a Downswing)
In the wake of the employment situation and monthly GDP (IHS Markit) releases:
Bank Lending, thru Aug. 17
Or, a post for Steven Kopits.
Glick, Leduc, Pepper: “Will Workers Demand Cost-of-Living Adjustments?”
That’s the title of a recent SF Fed Economic Letter, by Reuven Glick, Sylvain Leduc, and Mollie Pepper. Households are currently expecting inflation to run high in the short run but to remain muted over the more distant future. Given this divergence, what role do short-run and long-run household inflation expectations play in determining what […]
A Short Note on Idiotic Comments
Reader Steven Kopits writes:
Heavy Truck Sales and Vehicle Miles Traveled Growth As Coincident Indicators
Calculated Risk reminds me that heavy truck sales is something that collapses during recessions. I wondered how the 12 month change in this variable compare against the corresponding change in vehicle miles traveled (suggested by Steven Kopits). The latter does pretty lousy.
Nowcast Errors – Atlanta vs. St. Louis
Reader Steven Kopits seems to think the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow is the only nowcast of relevance. There are actually quite a few, from the tracking GDPs from consulting firms (e.g., IHS Markit formerly Macroeconomic Advisers) to Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, etc. However, for illustrative purposes, here is an easy to do comparison (since the data […]
Does a Decline in the 12 Month Moving Average of VMT Presage a Recession?
Mr. Steven Kopits writes: But by and large, VMT on a 12 mms basis turns a bit before or right at the start of a recession.
Is a Decline in Vehicle Miles Traveled a 1 Month Leading Indicator for Recession?
Mr. Steven Kopits writes: Another is vehicle miles traveled, which is either very short term leading (ie, failing one month or so prior to the official onset of recession), coincident, or lagging by up to 4-5 months if one is using, say, 12 month moving sums.