Reader Steven Kopits asks me to “show us the math” for why the increase in multiple job holders cannot account for the majority of the discrepancy between net job creation from 2022M03 until 2022M11. Here it is:
No.
Here’s industrial production (Fed, Miron-Romer) index during the 1920-21 recession, as reader Steven Kopits thinks this is the template for a conjectured current ongoing recession (or incipient – the conjecture keeps on changing).
Monthly indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus GDP and GDO, plus IHS-Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP:
Now seems a useful time to re-assess some of the pronouncements made in the wake of the tragic disaster that struck Puerto Rico in September 2017. First, fatalities of Americans (contra Mr. Trump’s seeming assertion these were not American) were much higher than some commentators claimed. Second, arguments that economic policies undertaken in 2016 and […]
In the wake of the employment situation and monthly GDP (IHS Markit) releases:
Or, a post for Steven Kopits.
That’s the title of a recent SF Fed Economic Letter, by Reuven Glick, Sylvain Leduc, and Mollie Pepper. Households are currently expecting inflation to run high in the short run but to remain muted over the more distant future. Given this divergence, what role do short-run and long-run household inflation expectations play in determining what […]
Reader Steven Kopits writes:
Calculated Risk reminds me that heavy truck sales is something that collapses during recessions. I wondered how the 12 month change in this variable compare against the corresponding change in vehicle miles traveled (suggested by Steven Kopits). The latter does pretty lousy.