Why We Don’t Call Recessions on the Basis of Petroleum Use
Reader Steven Kopits writes:
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Graphically Taking the Quantity Equation Literally
A tautology: MV ≡ PQ
Sovereign Debt Crisis or Oil in the Euro Area Recession of 2011-13
Conventional wisdom (sovereign debt crisis and austerity measures) or oil as cause? Steven Kopits says oil: The cause of a brutal recession in Europe during Q4 2011 – Q1 2013 remains unexplained in policy circles. Or more precisely, the proposed explanation is less than compelling. … oil prices once again returned to high levels, with […]
Remarkable Things People Say
In this case, one person. Steven Kopits writes: 4. The US is immune to an oil shock on paper as we are ostensibly energy independent in oil. We’ve seen this play out before. US oil consumption declined from June 2011 to December 2012 — 18 months — without the US falling into recession, something which […]
Vehicle Miles Traveled and Fuel Consumption
Gasoline prices have hit a new (nominal) high. The impact on the driving and the economy depends in part on the intensity of use of gasoline and diesel.
Predictions – Oil Prices and Recoveries and Recessions
A bit over 12 years ago, one prognosticator Steven Kopits wrote: With the 9.4% unemployment report WTI oil prices are, I believe, effectively at a post-crash high. I think the economic news suggests that we are running up the back of the “V”. This is good news and bad news. The good news: an unexpectedly […]
Per Capita GDP Doing Just Fine, Linearly, since 1947
If you don’t believe me, take a look at this time series plot of available US GDP per capita.
On Confidence Intervals and Logs
Confidence Intervals
What Happens When One Runs Around Saying Things without a Model
Steven Kopits writes: We might expect a massive stimulus coupled with a major loss of jobs to lead to an explosion of the trade deficit, which it has. … In extremis, such a stimulus might even generate record levels of goods imports, which it has. … This record level of imports would result in record […]
Temperature Anomaly – Northern Hemisphere
Here’s a time series plot of 12 month moving averages of monthly global temperature anomalies for the northern hemisphere, both for land and ocean (blue) and land (red), (in degree C). Note: June is not included…