Expect More of This
House Representative Gooden’s recent comments discussed in LA Times:
Search Results for: steven kopits
A Re-Post of a Note on Comment Moderation
If are to include a link to a YouTube video in your comment, please be aware that it might take me an extended time period for me to get around to publishing said comment (if ever at all). I need to check the content of the video, and sometimes (like when teaching is underway, etc.), […]
Data Paranoia Watch: “I’ve read that others think the CES was manipulated to provide a more rosy picture heading into the election”
That’s a quote from Mr. Steven Kopits, on why the CES survey showed such a rosy picture on NFP growth. This statement joins a long pile of such allegations, e.g., Senator Barraso, Jack Welch, former Rep. Allan West, Zerohedge, Mick Mulvaney, among others. All I can say is that (1) if there was a conspiracy, they didn’t do […]
Can the Increase in Multiple Job Holders Account for the Majority of the CES-CPS Job Creation Discrepancy?
Self-declared policy analyst Steven Kopits comments:
The Employment Release: The Business Cycle Assessed, Accounting for Labor Measurement Issues, Weekly Indicators
The employment situation release for December 2022 provides latest available monthly data on the economy’s conditions. Here’re a variety of labor market indicators:
A Holistic but Quantitative Look at Economic Indicators (with Attention to 2022H1)
A reader observes:
“I acknowledge that it shows that the increase in multiple job holders is insufficient to account for the material part of increased jobs per the Establishment Survey”
That is reader Steven Kopits acknowledging his repeated assertion [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] that an increase in multiple job holders was an important factor in explaining the divergence between the household and establishment employment series.
Why the Increase in Multiple Job Holders Cannot Account for Most of CES-CPS Discrepancy
Reader Steven Kopits asks me to “show us the math” for why the increase in multiple job holders cannot account for the majority of the discrepancy between net job creation from 2022M03 until 2022M11. Here it is:
Did the Yield Curve Predict a 2022H1 Recession?
No.
Industrial Production in the Recession of 1920-21, Compared to a Hypothetical 2022 Recession
Here’s industrial production (Fed, Miron-Romer) index during the 1920-21 recession, as reader Steven Kopits thinks this is the template for a conjectured current ongoing recession (or incipient – the conjecture keeps on changing).