(1) do not make absolutist statements without knowing the nature of the data; (2) Do not abuse statistical terminology; (3) do not assert a conspiracy is in place just because the data do not conform to your preferred narrative.
Ever wonder whether vehicle miles traveled (VMT) does a good job of predicting recessions? You should’ve stopped after looking at this Econbrowser post from January 4th, but I thought an update to most recent data would be of interest as we obtain December data. First take a look at what VMT does over recessions, versus […]
House Representative Gooden’s recent comments discussed in LA Times:
If are to include a link to a YouTube video in your comment, please be aware that it might take me an extended time period for me to get around to publishing said comment (if ever at all). I need to check the content of the video, and sometimes (like when teaching is underway, etc.), […]
That’s a quote from Mr. Steven Kopits, on why the CES survey showed such a rosy picture on NFP growth. This statement joins a long pile of such allegations, e.g., Senator Barraso, Jack Welch, former Rep. Allan West, Zerohedge, Mick Mulvaney, among others. All I can say is that (1) if there was a conspiracy, they didn’t do […]
Self-declared policy analyst Steven Kopits comments:
The employment situation release for December 2022 provides latest available monthly data on the economy’s conditions. Here’re a variety of labor market indicators:
A reader observes:
That is reader Steven Kopits acknowledging his repeated assertion [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] that an increase in multiple job holders was an important factor in explaining the divergence between the household and establishment employment series.
Reader Steven Kopits asks me to “show us the math” for why the increase in multiple job holders cannot account for the majority of the discrepancy between net job creation from 2022M03 until 2022M11. Here it is: