The evidence is overwhelming. As Steven Kopits comments: Yes, Powell and Yellen [are at fault for causing the inflation and resulting banking crisis]. Nothing new there. And, yes, the US can export inflation. If a US fiscal impulse goes into a full employment (or upwardly constrained employment) economy, then the difference will show up in […]
(1) do not make absolutist statements without knowing the nature of the data; (2) Do not abuse statistical terminology; (3) do not assert a conspiracy is in place just because the data do not conform to your preferred narrative.
Ever wonder whether vehicle miles traveled (VMT) does a good job of predicting recessions? You should’ve stopped after looking at this Econbrowser post from January 4th, but I thought an update to most recent data would be of interest as we obtain December data. First take a look at what VMT does over recessions, versus […]
House Representative Gooden’s recent comments discussed in LA Times:
If are to include a link to a YouTube video in your comment, please be aware that it might take me an extended time period for me to get around to publishing said comment (if ever at all). I need to check the content of the video, and sometimes (like when teaching is underway, etc.), […]
That’s a quote from Mr. Steven Kopits, on why the CES survey showed such a rosy picture on NFP growth. This statement joins a long pile of such allegations, e.g., Senator Barraso, Jack Welch, former Rep. Allan West, Zerohedge, Mick Mulvaney, among others. All I can say is that (1) if there was a conspiracy, they didn’t do […]
Self-declared policy analyst Steven Kopits comments:
The employment situation release for December 2022 provides latest available monthly data on the economy’s conditions. Here’re a variety of labor market indicators:
A reader observes:
That is reader Steven Kopits acknowledging his repeated assertion [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] that an increase in multiple job holders was an important factor in explaining the divergence between the household and establishment employment series.