Based on Cleveland Fed nowcasts:
Diesel Prices Remain Elevated
From the EIA:
Bloomberg: “Bessent’s Bond Gains Wiped Out as Treasury Yields Jump Again”
The pressure is impacting long-dated bonds around the world, due to the same concerns about the oil-driven inflation shock and government spending. Germany’s 30-year yields touched the highest since 2011, and the equivalent UK rate rose to a level last seen in 1998. Australian peers set a fresh record high in data going back to 2016, while the yield on a Bloomberg index of global sovereign bonds climbed the highest in almost two decades.
Ten Year at 4.79%
On the run, at noon CT:
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Yield Curve Pre- and Post-Buyback
How’s it going? 10 year yields are up relative to Friday. Indeed, after initial progress in lowering long rates, pretty much the entire yield curve is now up.
Seven Graphs for the Financial System
Apropos of nothing except current (financial system) events (Fall teaching), some pictures to elicit thoughts.
- Debt rising fast even at full employment
- Stock market near peak?
- Fed funds rate above Taylor rule implied levels.
- Fed credibility lower under Trump 2.0.
- Stablecoins after GENIUS.
- And (not on the syllabus), dollar reserve currency domination eroded (see Eichengreen in NYT yesterday).
So Much for the Manufacturing Employment Renaissance
Preliminary benchmark revision based on QCEW data, released today:
The Petroleum and Petroleum Products Balance
From NIPA accounts:
US-Canada Oil & Gas Trade
From Census via ITA:
Trade Deficit Upside Surprise by $18bn
Goods trade deficit larger than before the election. So much for tariffs reducing goods imports relative to pre tariff.