As of March end:
Workers of the US: Were You Better Off in February 2026 than Today?
Average Hourly Earnings in CPI deflated 2025$:
March CPI Inflation Preview: Q/Q AR at 5.2% to 5.9%
Cleveland Fed nowcast m/m as of today, vs. Bloomberg consensus. The nowcast is a mechanical prediction based on reported CPI and PCE, as well as daily oil prices and weekly gasoline prices.
Various Measures of Employment
I see a lot of ebullience in the wake of the March headline NFP number. I’m not so convinced (see here), and looking at other indicators buttresses my wariness.
Upward Shift: Market-Implied Path of 3 Month SOFR, Pre-War vs. Now
From Atlanta Fed, calculations as of today:
“Liberation Day” Plus One Year
Nice roundup on political economy and geoeconomics from Council on Foreign Relations.
Economic Policy Uncertainty in the Wake of “F*****’ Strait” Post
Remarkably low (considering) and high (since it’s *economic* policy):
Nonfarm Payroll Employment in 2026: More Volatile?
If it seems that the BLS CES nonfarm payroll employment series has looked a bit more variable than usual, you might not be imagining it (although one would be very hard pressed to show it’s a statistically significant difference). To see this, compare against the ADP measure.
Daily Data on 5 Year Inflation Expectations
From inflation breakevens, estimated:
Trump Credibility Measured
From TruthSocial, 5AM ET:
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