As of the 2026Q1 3rd release:
June (Final) Consumer Sentiment
Beats consensus/preliminary (49.5 vs. 48.9), rising above May final (44.8) — but still low:
Consensus on Canadian GDP
Economists in a Bloomberg survey now see Canada’s economy expanding just 0.7% this year after shrinking in the first quarter.
Nowcasts/Forecasts of GDP
GDPNow updated downward:
LLMs and IMF Advice, Dollar Trinity, Risk-On/Risk -Off and Loanly Govts: (Almost) Live-Blogging ISOM 2026
Jeffrey Frankel and Hélène Rey organized a great conference for the NBER’s International Seminar on Macroeconomics, hosted by the Sveriges Riksbank; topics covered were wide and diverse. The program is here:
Business Cycle Indicators as of End-June
Personal income, consumption, slightly above consensus; manufacturing and trade industry sales (April), and 3rd release GDO:
Guest Contribution: “1776”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version in Project Syndicate.
Retail Sales and Retail Sales ex-Auto, Gas
Here’re some business cycle indicators with deflated retail sales:
Industrial, Manufacturing Production and Business Cycle Indicators
IP at 0.1% m/m vs. 0.3% consensus.
Small Firm Employment and Business Cycle Prospects
From ADP, one sees that employment growth has accelerated, small firm employment, and employment share, has decelerated.