In the IS-LM equation, we have the investment function:
Policy Uncertainty: Economic and Trade
Through yesterday:
Who Will We Trade With If the Fed Doesn’t Lower Rates?
The Blackest Black Box Mid-Session Review Ever
I was looking to see what the Administration’s Mid-Session Review economic forecast looked like. Alas, courtesy of Jared Bernstein, I am disappointed. Did Vought et al. purge all the economists from the CEA, Treasury and OMB? The MSR:
August Real Average Hourly Earnings Nowcasted
With August hourly earnings and nowcasted August CPI:
Business Cycle Indicators: CES/CPS Employment Surges
Evidence of continued growth:
Wisconsin Exports under Trump
Down, under Trump 1.0 and Trump 2.0:
Looking at What Used To Be EJ Antoni’s Favorite Household Finances Indicator
Back at the end of 2024, EJ Antoni was citing the Primerica Household Budget Index as indicator of consumer conditions.
A Dropoff in Manufacturing Employment?
From the ADP release:
The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance
Improving through 2025Q3. But taking out the revenue associated with the illegal IEEPA tariffs, well…