Core GDP, final sales ex net exports and government, was revised upward from 3.9% to 4.2%, even if headline GDP growth was not noticeably revised up. That means domestic aggregate demand momentum remains in place.
Business Cycle Indicators: Real Consumption Is Flat
Nominal consumption beats expectations ( +0.2% m/m vs +0.1% Bbg consensus), but real personal income ex-transfers remains below recent peak.
Guest Contribution: “The U.S. Household-Income Cycle and the Motio Rule”
Today we present a guest post written by Matías Scaglione and Romina Soria of Motio Research, an independent research firm focused on measuring and analyzing U.S. household income.
Gasoline, Diesel, Kerosene: Diesel Rises Again
From the EIA:
What the Heck Is “Structural Excess Capacity”?
The US is going to expand the trade war against a whole slew of countries, using Section 301 charging “structural excess capacity”, caused by government intervention. China is up on the block, according Bloomberg:
August Consumer Confidence Downside Surprise
Conference Board indicator registers decline relative to downwardly revised July confidence:
Portfolio Balance vs. Loanable Funds: A Teaching Note
Is the real interest rate set by the demand vs. supply of all savings, private and public? Or is it set by the demand for money vs. bonds emanating from liquidity preference and (outside) wealth demand? Got to answer this in anticipation of teaching this Fall semester.
Wisconsin Goods Exports by Destination, 2025
As we lumber into an expanded trade war with Canada:
Paper (Diaper) Tiger? “Trump Vows to Double Tariffs on Canadian Autos, Escalating Fight”
Who could’a thunk it? From Bloomberg:
Guest Contribution: “When Does Monetary Tightening Deflate a Stock-Market Bubble?”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes).