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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Import Sensitive CPI Components, Core PCE Nowcast Rise

From the CPI release today:

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This entry was posted on August 12, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

CPI Print Tomorrow

Bloomberg, Truflation at 2.8% y/y; Cleveland Fed at 2.72%.

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This entry was posted on August 11, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Trump Nominates EJ Antoni to BLS Commissioner

From CNBC:

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This entry was posted on August 11, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Banking on Data Center Investment

Let’s hope capex investment in data centers is sustained.

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This entry was posted on August 11, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Cryptocurrencies and the political economy of money”

Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Mark Copelovitch (University of Wisconsin – Madison) and Thomas Pepinsky (Cornell University).


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This entry was posted on August 11, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Stock Market Capitalization ex-Magnificent 7

Courtesy of Ed Yardeni:

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This entry was posted on August 10, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Equipment and Structures Investment

We’re about halfway into Q3. Nowcasts put equipment and structures investment — particularly forward looking investment — at near flat relative to Q2.

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This entry was posted on August 10, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

If You Believe the CPS Employment Series Turns Down before the CES, Be Afraid

Personally, I’m not convinced, but if you are, then consider this graph:

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This entry was posted on August 9, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

What Other BLS Commissioners Should’ve Been Fired (But Weren’t) Using the Trump Criterion?

Here’re other prior 2 month cumulative revisions, normalized by employment (after all, the country has been growing for the past 100 years):

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This entry was posted on August 9, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Core Inflation Nowcasts and Tracking

From Cleveland Fed, Goldman Sachs, plus Bloomberg consensus – generally, acceleration in the q/q annualized:

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This entry was posted on August 8, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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