Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version, was published by Project Syndicate.
Equity Markets
Some observers have noted the recovery in equity prices post-“Liberation Day”. This is an accurate characterization for SP500 (and DJ30), but not for indices pertaining to smaller firms, like the Russell 2000.
“Wisconsin’s Shifting Import Economy”
That’s the title of Wisconsin Policy Forum Focus #9 released earlier this week.
Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index Updated to 2022
Just published, Chinn-Ito index, available here. Normalized to [0,1], with 1 being most open, here’s the world.
Planet Money: “How economists (and TikTok) know if a recession is coming”
NPR’s show today has a long segment on recession detection and prediction.
Destroying Dollar Safe Haven Status at Breakneck Speed
Consider the ten year Treasury yield and the dollar index (DXY) over the past six months:
Sentiment, Confidence, News
Note slight recovery in news sentiment (thru 5/18). Probably reflects some relief at the pause in higher US tariffs on Chinese goods.
Guest Contribution: “Policy Rule Evaluation for the Fed’s Strategy Review”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston, Sebin Nidhiri and Swati Singh, Ph.D. students at the University of Houston.
NABE 2025 Growth Outlook Downgraded from 1.9% (April) to 1.3% (May)
From NABE today:
EJ Antoni Redefines Recession as What the American People Feel
See 0:35 in this FoxBusiness snippet in which he admits that by the 2-quarter rule-of-thumb we might end up being in a recession, but opines that what Americans “feel” is a better definition.