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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Michaillat-Saez Recession Indicator

As noted in this post, the indicator detected a recession in March 2024. It stayed above the threshold thereafter, so the implication is that we are currently the same recession. However, since then, the indicator has decreased substantially, so the recession probability is low.

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This entry was posted on June 6, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

“First thing we do, let’s kill all the beancounters” Part 3

Part 2 was during the last Trump administration. Some things never change.

From Richard Rubin in today’s WSJ:

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This entry was posted on June 6, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

May Employment Release: NFP above Consensus, Mfg below

+139K vs +126K Bloomberg consensus; private NFP +140K vs +110K. Manufacturing employment down 8K vs -1K consensus. But durable manufacturing production workers down -12K.

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This entry was posted on June 6, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Is American Consumption too High?

The Economist asks the question, and says — in part — yes.

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This entry was posted on June 5, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Re-inversion 10yr-3mo, Weakening Dollar

As of June 5th, 10yr-3mo reinverts.

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This entry was posted on June 5, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Weekly Indicators using Data Releases thru 5/31

WEI continues to decline.

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This entry was posted on June 5, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

GDPNow Bounceback (Kind of)

Atlanta Fed nowcast shows 4.6% q/q AR growth in GDP. Interestingly, this does not take GDP back to pre-“Liberation Day” trend.

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This entry was posted on June 4, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

“Heritage Foundation Names EJ Antoni as Chief Economist”

Announcement on May 28 from Heritage:

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This entry was posted on June 3, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

The Roller Coaster Ride Continues … EPU through 6/1

And it doesn’t seem like it will end soon, unless …

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This entry was posted on June 1, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

“Trump may actually want a recession…”

That would explain a lot. He’s not very effective at much, but he is effective at setting the preconditions for a recession. From Yahoo!Finance quoting the Kobeissi Letter:

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This entry was posted on June 1, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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