As noted in this post, the indicator detected a recession in March 2024. It stayed above the threshold thereafter, so the implication is that we are currently the same recession. However, since then, the indicator has decreased substantially, so the recession probability is low.
“First thing we do, let’s kill all the beancounters” Part 3
May Employment Release: NFP above Consensus, Mfg below
+139K vs +126K Bloomberg consensus; private NFP +140K vs +110K. Manufacturing employment down 8K vs -1K consensus. But durable manufacturing production workers down -12K.
Is American Consumption too High?
The Economist asks the question, and says — in part — yes.
Re-inversion 10yr-3mo, Weakening Dollar
As of June 5th, 10yr-3mo reinverts.
Weekly Indicators using Data Releases thru 5/31
WEI continues to decline.
GDPNow Bounceback (Kind of)
Atlanta Fed nowcast shows 4.6% q/q AR growth in GDP. Interestingly, this does not take GDP back to pre-“Liberation Day” trend.
“Heritage Foundation Names EJ Antoni as Chief Economist”
Announcement on May 28 from Heritage:
The Roller Coaster Ride Continues … EPU through 6/1
And it doesn’t seem like it will end soon, unless …
“Trump may actually want a recession…”
That would explain a lot. He’s not very effective at much, but he is effective at setting the preconditions for a recession. From Yahoo!Finance quoting the Kobeissi Letter: