From AEI:
Puerto Rico under Trump
A reminder. Economic indicators, excess fatalities.
GDP Nowcasts/Tracking Down: What Does This Mean?
Never just look the headline number. The “why’s” matter. GDPNow down from 3.3% q/q AR to 2.8%, while GS tracking at 3.0%
Consumer Confidence Surprises on the Upside
108.7 vs. 99.5 (Bloomberg consensus). Is positive economic news percolating into surveys? From the Confidence Board today:
Consumer Price Levels
A comparison:
Gasoline Prices and Brent
From EIA:
McService Job Nation?
Reader Moonmac argues the case that we are in a recession, in a rejoinder my paper “Recession since 2022? A Critique“:
McService Job Nation disagrees even though they’re employed. Gainfully is a different matter.
Trump 2.0 Tariffs and Wisconsin
Be prepared. It doesn’t look good for Wisconsin (just like Trump 1.0 didn’t but this time there isn’t $18 billion on tap to bail out the soybean farmers).
Revised Paper: No, We Haven’t Been in a Recession since 2022
EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge argue we have been deceived by incorrect deflators. Rebuttal, showing the irreproducibility of their results, and non-deflator sensitive indicators, downloadable here, with new data.
Guest Contribution: “The Economics Nobel Prize and Settler Mortality”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared at Project Syndicate and the Korea Herald.