Including “Liberation Day” and “termination”, down 15%, and 7.9% (log terms) relative to post-inauguration peaks (through 4/22 close).
IMF, WSJ Forecasts for 2025 US Growth Revised Down
In today’s newly released IMF World Economic Outlook, 2025 Q4/Q4 growth revised down by 0.9 ppts from January. Compare against WSJ mean revised down by 1.27 ppts. GDPNow adjusted for gold imports is on track to match WSJ forecast.
Why Aren’t You Calling? (Trump to Beijing)
From Bloomberg, “Trump Presses China to Make Tariff Offer to Calm Trade War”:
Wisconsin Policy Forum: “Turbulence for Wisconsin’s Export Economy”
An excellent overview is provided in this report, out today — although I’d say the title likely understates the situation confronting Wisconsin.
How’s It Going? Trump on 8/9/2024: “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods.”
Here’s a visual sit-rep on prices for Americans.
Event Study: “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”
I’m coming up on lecturing on Fed independence and time consistency etc. President Trump continues to provide (depressingly) many episodes to discuss. No dearth of “current events” topics this term…
2025Q1 Stall Speed? Tracking and Betting on GDP Growth, Retail Sales Composition
GDPNow at essentially zero growth. Industrial production, retail sales (control) surprise downside.
“What soaring uncertainty means for the U.S. economy”
From Cui, NBC:
Dollar Dominance No More?
Steve Kamin in the FT, Goodman in the NYT, Krugman on substack, FT Editorial Board write on how Trump policy erraticism on erosion of the dollar as a safe asset/exorbitant privilege. Kamin deploys regressions to support his conclusions:
WSJ Survey of Economists – April 2025
The GDP outlook is down markedly. I was insufficiently pessimistic (relative to WSJ survey respondents) regarding the GDP outlook.