While (UMich) economic sentiment (preliminary) falls.
Imports from China, Foretold
More accurately, nowcasted using inbound container traffic. Two thirds of Chinese imports (by value) comes by sea freight. And sea freight from China doesn’t seem to be rebounding; from Torsten Slok:
Photos from a Conference
I was at a conference — actually two — in Singapore: the Asian Bureau for Finance and Economic Research annual conference, and the Asian Monetary Policy Forum. In the first, I attended a talk by Steven Davis (Hoover), on “Measuring Policy Uncertainty, Assessing its Consequences”. One slide pretty much summed up my feelings about these times…
50% Tariffs on the EU? Or, Wegovy for me, but not for thee?
Macro impact doesn’t seem large according to Yale Budget Lab, but I can hardly wait to see how much a 50% increase in Ozempic and Wegovy prices will go over with the public.
Guest Contribution: “Foreign aid looks good, now that it’s gone”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version, was published by Project Syndicate.
Equity Markets
Some observers have noted the recovery in equity prices post-“Liberation Day”. This is an accurate characterization for SP500 (and DJ30), but not for indices pertaining to smaller firms, like the Russell 2000.
“Wisconsin’s Shifting Import Economy”
That’s the title of Wisconsin Policy Forum Focus #9 released earlier this week.
Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index Updated to 2022
Just published, Chinn-Ito index, available here. Normalized to [0,1], with 1 being most open, here’s the world.
Planet Money: “How economists (and TikTok) know if a recession is coming”
NPR’s show today has a long segment on recession detection and prediction.
Destroying Dollar Safe Haven Status at Breakneck Speed
Consider the ten year Treasury yield and the dollar index (DXY) over the past six months: