The euro has been depreciating against the dollar over the past few weeks. The implications of this development for the US depend critically on (1) the extent of the depreciation, (2) the duration, and (3) the source of the depreciation. (See Jim’s post for other links.)
San Diego economy outlook
The San Diego Daily Transcript invited me to join a group of economists in discussing prospects for the local economy. You can watch the discussion in a series of videos:
Europe and the world economy
Since mid-April, the euro has depreciated 10% against the U.S. dollar and European stocks have lost 17% of their value. But markets aren’t acting as though the problems will be confined to Europe.
NOAA: Warmest April Global Temperature on Record
That’s the title from today’s top entry on the NOAA website. And if that’s not interesting enough, the subtitle reads: “Also Warmest January-April”
Pictures at a Catastrophe
(With apologies to Mussorgsky.) Here’s the first:
Figure 1: MODIS/Terra image/Sky Truth, May 10, 2010.
Inflation, taxation, and the underground economy
University of Maryland Professor Boragan Aruoba (of the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index fame) has an interesting new paper that offers another perspective on the challenges facing Europe.
Consumption and Imports: A Snapshot
The March trade release came in close to consensus (although suggesting higher 2010Q1 growth [0]). Comparing the advance release figures on real goods imports against the Jan-Mar figures from the trade release doesn’t suggest a big revision (about 7.5 billion Ch.05$ on SAAR). I thought it would be interesting to see if there were any indications that American consumers were weaning themselves off of foreign consumer goods, using the 2010Q1 Advance release figures.
The European bailout
As Europe and the IMF announce close to a trillion dollar rescue package, Megan McArdle asks, what’s the benefit to the countries providing the funding? Here are my thoughts.
The Rescue Package Graphically Depicted
Quantifying Macro Spillovers
In a post regarding the transmission of financial turmoil from Europe to the US last week, I noted my research with Kristin Forbes on the determinants of the strength of financial market linkages. A more recent and extensive survey of the macroeconomic — as opposed to financial — linkages is provided by a recent released working paper coauthored by Ashoka Mody and Alina Carare at the IMF.