I didn’t have time to put together a detailed post for today. But fortunately, I see that Bill McBride has done a much better job than I could of summarizing what to look for in 2011.
Some Lessons from Recent Global Macro Events
I’ve just attended a conference sponsored by the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee, entitled “The International Monetary System: Old and New Debates”, which took place against the backdrop of France’s chairmanship of the G-20.
Forgetting about Demand, Once Again
Professor Mulligan asserts that the payroll tax cut will have little effect on output, even in sticky price Keynesian, and New Keynesian, models. He writes:
Did QE2 work?
Having offered my assessment of the effects of the Fed’s second round of quantitative easing (QE2), I wanted to mention briefly the takes of some other observers.
Extending unemployment benefits
Here I make two quick observations on the policies being discussed.
Evaluating QE2
On November 3, the Federal Reserve announced some new monetary policy measures that have been popularly (if perhaps inaccurately) referred to as a second round of quantitative easing, or QE2. What effects, if any, does QE2 seem to have had so far?
Trade and Credit, Again
From Off the Cliff and Back? Credit Conditions and International Trade during the Global Financial Crisis, by Davin Chor and Kalina Manova:
Worrying about oil prices
The price of oil moved above $90 a barrel yesterday. Is it time to become concerned about the possible macroeconomic effects?
The Correlation between Money Base Growth and Inflation
I’ve been reading through undergraduate textbooks, trying to figure out where the idea that money base expansion must necessarily manifest itself in higher inflation. In Stephen Williamson‘s macro textbook, he argues that fears of inflation are motivated by the view that eventually, money base expansion will feed into money expansion (box on pp. 432), despite the fact that there is no obvious contemporaneous correlation between the two variables.
Still no strength in this rebound
The new news looks to me like the same old news.