“We have met the enemy and he is us,” Pogo used to say. Well, we’ve also now met the recovery, and he is ugly.
NOAA: Past Decade Warmest on Record
Conference: China in the Global Economy
Recently, I had the pleasure of participating in a CES-ifo workshop on “The Evolving Role of China in the Global Economy,” co-organized by Yin-Wong Cheung and Jakob de Haan. The conference agenda is here. The paper topics spanned issues ranging from monetary independence and integration into global financial markets, SOE access to credit and SOE efficiency, Chinese saving/consumption behavior, econometric models of China-global interactions, and the determinants of Chinese FDI in the rest-of-the-world.
More disappointing news
Just a quick note on a couple of new data releases today.
Update on the bumpy recovery
I was curious to take a look at how Mike Dueker’s Business Cycle Index and other measures assess the current situation.
Bruce Bartlett Reminds Us: WMD, Medicare Part D, Steel Tariffs, Harriet Miers
Bruce Bartlett reminds us of the George W. Bush: Screwup-in-Chief, 2001-2008. Short version: Iraq, WMD, unfunded Medicare Part D, Sarbanes-Oxley, Katrina, Harriet Miers, no vetos until second term, tax rebates+credits and nonpermanent tax cuts, steel tariffs, ag subsidies, keeping Cheney, compassionate conservativism, signing McCain-Feingold after threatening to veto, neutering SecTreas, and GSEs.
China land prices
Tell me if you think this story sounds familiar.
Guest Contribution: Should central banks target higher rates of inflation?
By Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Johannes Wieland
Today, we’re fortunate to have Oli Coibion, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Professors of Economics at William and Mary and at UC Berkeley, respectively, and Johannes Wieland, Ph.D. candidate at UC Berkeley, as a Guest Contributors.
Fighting deflation
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that the seasonally adjusted consumer price index declined in June to the lowest level since November. When we start to talk about the level of the CPI rather than its rate of change, you know that deflation could once again become a key concern.
The Return of Portfolio Balance Models: “The Large Scale Asset Purchases Had Large International Effects”
In a new working paper, the St. Louis Fed’s Christopher Neely argues The Large Scale Asset Purchases Had Large International Effects.
The Federal Reserve’s large scale asset purchases (LSAP) of agency debt,
MBSs and long-term U.S. Treasuries not only reduced long-term U.S. bond yields also
significantly reduced long-term foreign bond yields and the spot value of the dollar. …