The Government’s Macroeconomic Series: X-Files, Dilbert, or Resource Constraints?

Or, is the model for explaining why macro data sometimes appear so counter to intuition best explained by willful deception (Iraq and WMDs), incompetence (the FEMA response to Katrina), or prosaic (resource constraints)? The casual reader might think I’m overstating the extreme hypotheses, but there is, after all, a whole website devoted to the proposition of conspiracy:

Have you ever wondered why the CPI, GDP and employment numbers run counter to your personal and business experiences? The problem lies in biased and often-manipulated government reporting.

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UAE & Other Gulf Countries Urged to Switch Currency Peg from the Dollar to a Basket That Includes Oil

By Jeffrey Frankel

Today, we’re fortunate to have Jeff Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, as a guest blogger. His blog is here.

The possibility that some Gulf states, particularly the UAE, might abandon their long-time pegs to the dollar is getting increasing attention (from Martin Feldstein and Brad Setser, for instance). It makes sense. The combination of high oil prices, rapid growth, a tightly fixed exchange rate, and the big depreciation of the dollar against other currencies (especially the euro, important for Gulf imports) was always going to be a recipe for strong money inflows and inflation in these countries. The economic dynamism — most striking in Dubai — is admirable and fascinating, but also now clearly indicative of overheating. Indeed inflation, as predicted, has risen alarmingly. Among other ill effects, it is producing unrest among immigrant workers. An appreciation of the dirham and riyal is the obvious solution.

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Janet Yellen on risks and prospects for the U.S. economy

This morning we were pleased to welcome Janet Yellen, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, to our UCSD Economics Roundtable. She focused on three main challenges: the housing slump, financial market turmoil, and commodity prices, which she likened to the three witches from Macbeth. Her complete speech is available from the FRB SFO Here are some excerpts.

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