The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2006, more than most of us had been anticipating, and far better than the 0% growth that Nouriel Roubini had been predicting for 2006:Q4 as recently as November 28.
Cantarell in decline
Production from Mexico’s Cantarell oil field is falling quickly.
Macroeconomic Implications of War with Iran
Or, “Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia”. The speculation regarding imminent military action rises. What are the fiscal implications of a large scale missile campaign? What would be the repercussions of likely Iranian responses (including closing off the Straits of Hormuz)?
The housing market and the Federal Reserve
More evidence that the housing market has stabilized, consistent with the recent policy stance of the Federal Reserve.
San Diego Economic Roundtable
I participated this morning in the 23rd Annual San Diego County Economic Roundtable discussion of prospects for the national and local economy. Slides from my remarks are available here and video from the event will be rebroadcast locally a number of times (schedule here).
My bottom line? I think 2007 will be disappointing, but not a disaster.
UPDATE: the event has also been covered by the San Diego Union Tribune.
Exchange rates, output gaps and inflation rates
Is there any role for the Taylor rule in helping predict exchange rates?
Derek Neal for president
I can’t pass up this opportunity to brag about another one of my former students– Matthew Kahn says that Derek Neal would make a good president.
Matthew’s right.
What would Milton do?
What with next Monday apparently having been declared Milton Friedman Day, I thought I might try to contribute to the festivities with some thoughts on how recent U.S. monetary policy might be evaluated from a Friedmanesque perspective.
Army Transformation sacrificed on the altar of …(a) tax cuts, (b) Iraq, (c) other
Or, “opportunity cost illustrated” redux. From GovExec.com:
Commodity speculation
Two stories this week give me some concern.