Five weeks ago I asked, Will inflation fears restrain the Fed?, and my answer was that they would not. Certainly inflation fears did not prevent the Fed from lowering its target for the fed funds rate by 125 basis points since I offered that assessment. But I believe that this week’s data will force the Fed to be more cautious about the magnitude and pace of subsequent rate cuts.
Iraq rationales: WMDs, Fighting Terrorism, Democracy, Military Keynesianism
From FT yesterday:
$100 a barrel
Crude oil reached a record high on Tuesday, and there’s an embarrassing oversupply of theories to explain why.
Trade, Exchange Rates and Pass Through
Some thoughts on what to make of the trade and export/import price releases.
What you see is what you get
Another week to read what you like into the economic tea leaves.
CBO on the Outlook, Post-Stimulus
The CBO released new forecasts [pdf] yesterday. No recession, but…
Tracking home prices in San Diego
Earlier this week, I explained why real estate prices, rather than interest rates or credit workouts, are the critical determinant of how bad the foreclosure problem is going to become. Today I discuss some of the alternative measures of real estate prices that we might look at, illustrated using the latest numbers for my own community here in San Diego.
International Aspects of Tax Policy in the 2008 Economic Report of the President
The tax policy chapter of the ERP is quite interesting, in part because I have a sense of deja vu [1], [2] when reading the cross-country/international sections.
Project Lifeline
Why “Project Lifeline” is unlikely to help the mortgage mess.
International Economics in the 2008 Economic Report of the President
Ignore the newspaper reports about the short term forecasts; that’s old news, since these White House forecasts were made in November (and hence, it’s not fair to compare these forecasts to current forecasts, as has been done in some journalistic accounts). And ignore the chapter on housing markets — there’s not going to be any discussion of how inadequate regulatory oversight (to put it mildly) might have contributed to this debacle. The interesting stuff is in the discussion — or lack of discussion — of certain international economics issues (no Renminbi!).
Economic Report of the President, 2008 [large pdf!]