PBoC and financial regulators act, but even with fiscal measures underway, are unlikely to drastically change the path of the economy.
Disciplining the Debate: Recession Indicator AUROCs
One of the interesting things about the current debate over whether we’re about to go into a recession or not is the multitude of indicators that different people glom onto — without any expressed formal rationale for picking one over the other. See this list of people in the recession camp, here.
In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Recession Probabilities
No apparent recession as of August 2024 data (my interpretation – see the opposing views here). Using year-ago financial data, what would have probit regressions have indicated? It matters which variables you use, and whether you include the 2020 recession.
Guest Contribution: “As Predicted by Motio Estimates, Real Median Household Income Rose in 2023 for the First Time Since 2019”
Today we present a guest post written by Matías Scaglione and Romina Soria, co-founders of the data science and economic consulting firm Motio Research.
Why Do Prediction Markets Differ in Pricing the Election?
RealClearPolitics betting average, today, has Harris-Trump 52.3 to 46.3.
Bull Steepening since FOMC Meeting
Here’s the cumulative change since 6/3/2024:
“Newly released data from the Commerce Department show what some people have been saying for months: The nation is in recession.”
That’s EJ Antoni/Heritage Foundation, writing in September 2022. A cautionary note on declaring recessions.
Nowcasts Rising
Here’s a snapshot of nowcasts and forecasts as of today:
State Employment Report for August
Unemployment rises in many states, but so does employment (NFP) growth (report).
Nowcasting Wisconsin NFP Employment
Can we use national employment to nowcast Wisconsin employment? This endeavor is somewhat complicated by the pandemic. With DWD’s release today, we can evaluate the fit of the model.