As noted earlier, Peter Navarro indicated Jerome Powell would be “gone in a hundred days”. Trump in a Bloomberg interview:
Russia Real GDP and GDP ex-Military Spending
Using the April 2024 WEO projections (the July update indicates no revision for 2024 growth, and -0.3 ppts for 2025 y/y), we can see the following trajectory for Russian output, and Russia output ex-military spending.
The Market Based SOFR Path
As of 7/15 and month ago:
Russia Economic Sit-Rep: Recession in the Coming Year?
Gorodnichenko, in YahooFinance:
July 2024 WEO Update Released
As of today:
Food Inflation Stable, Down in the Midwest
Through June:
China Economic Sentiment
From Torsten Slok/Apollo today, following up on the post yesterday:
Recession Probabilities for June 2025
Probabilities have peaked, using a standard spread model.
China GDP News, and a View on Chinese Medicine
China q/q and y/y GDP below consensus, +0.7% vs +1.1% cons, +4.7% vs. +5.1% cons (Bloomberg).
Exchange Rates and Interest Rates: Some Papers [updated to 7/15]
I’ve spent the last week seeing lots of presentations on macro and international finance. Of particular interest are some papers on interest rate parity: