In addition to CPI, we have chained CPI, CPI-wage earners, HICP, a nowcast for PCE, as well as May PCE – market based. The four June price indices are down.
Instantaneous PPI Inflation
PPI reads above consensus:
Instantaneous Inflation in June
CPI m/m (headline, core) below consensus (-0.1% vs +0.1%, +0.1 vs +0.2, respectively).
Nontraditional Reserve Holdings, Through 2022
…although incomplete data for 2022.
Reserve De-Dollarization in Progress?
More articles on dollar dominance, e.g. in Foreign Policy, Wells Fargo, vs. BitcoinNews. But most of the discussion centers on dollar use in terms medium of exchange etc. (SWIFT use, invoicing). Here, some recent trends for the reserve dimension.
An Alternative Civilian Employment Measure
Several observers have pointed out the gap between civilian employment as measured by the CPS, and the nonfarm payroll employment numbers obtained from the CES. The CPS measure includes new population controls, which depend on the estimated immigration. CBO estimates a lot more net immigration than Census, which when applied to employment might alter our views of employment.
“Mandate for Leadership” (aka Project 2025) on Monetary Policy
See full document here (couldn’t download from Heritage when I tried). Here’s the text for monetary policy.
Alternative Employment Measures of NFP
CPS based series adjusted to NFP way below official NFP, early benchmark.
Employment Situation and Business Cycle Indicators
NFP at +206K vs +191K.
Consensus vs Actual – Real Time Sahm Rule for June [updated]
Bloomberg consensus is 4%. This implies near trigger for the Sahm Rule (in real time):