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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

“Where’s the Slowdown”

Torsten Slok (Apollo) asks that question today. He summarizes:

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This entry was posted on July 22, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Real Wages Rising in Wisconsin

For all private workers, as well as production and nonsupervisory:

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This entry was posted on July 22, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Alternative Business Cycle Indicators

Most recent forecasts indicate no recession, Q2 nowcasts raised (GDPNow, NY Fed), weekly indicators (Lewis, Mertens, Stock; Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims) growth rates rising, and both NBER BCDC indicators as well as alternative indicators showing positive growth.

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This entry was posted on July 21, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Can One Have a Recession Start When Real Household Wealth Is Rising?

Torsten Slok presents this graph, and writes “The bottom line is that the tailwind to consumer spending for homeowners and equity owners is significant, in particular when combined with record-high cash flows from fixed income.”

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This entry was posted on July 20, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Macroeconomic Implications of Forced Mass Deportation

For whom the bell tolls? Undocumented? Documented but not naturalized? All non-native born?  Native born with both parents undocumented?

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This entry was posted on July 19, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Wisconsin Employment Rises versus Voter Perceptions

From DWD today:

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This entry was posted on July 18, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Vote Trump for Lower GDP, Higher Unemployment

From Wells Fargo today, using Oxford Economics macro model, simulating out the effects of Trump’s trade policies (as stated thus far). Addendum to yesterday’s post “Vote Trump for Higher Inflation, Bigger Deficits, Higher Interest Rates”.

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This entry was posted on July 18, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

GDP Forecast: CBO above WSJ

WSJ July forecast relative to CBO, IMF WEO update, and GDPNow as of yesterday:

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This entry was posted on July 18, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Vote Trump for Higher Inflation, Bigger Deficits, Higher Interest Rates

Messages from the WSJ July Survey:

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This entry was posted on July 17, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-July 2024

Industrial production at +0.6% m/m vs. +0.3% consensus (manufacturing production +0.4 vs. +0.2% consensus).

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This entry was posted on July 17, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Business Cycle Indicators – June Employment Release and May Monthly GDP
  • Private NFP Downside Surprise
  • ADP Below Consensus – What Does It Mean?
  • The Return (Again) of Supply Side Economics – CEA Edition
  • Your Daily Reminder: Prices of Import Competing Goods Rise with Tariffed Imported Goods Prices

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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