Bruce Mizrach prepared some very thoughtful questions for an interview at the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics Symposium in San Francisco two months ago. We discussed a broad range of topics, including my background, Markov-switching models, the Fed, oil prices, and why I blog. Below are links you can follow to see the answers to particular questions.
Important Footnotes in Dynamic Scoring
The White House today cited the 2006 Treasury Report in its “Pro Growth Tax Policy” information sheet. From the website:
Anchors away
From the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee:
GDP on the Eve of Recession: Then and (Maybe) Now
There’s been relief in many circles that GDP in 2008Q1 was revised upward. I too take this as good news, to the extent that the economy seems to be growing more rapidly — and output more balanced — than previously thought. Figure 1 depicts the q/q SAAR growth rate, using the May 2008 preliminary release.
What the Administration Considered Too Dangerous to Release for Four Years
And released only under threat of a court order: “Scientific Assessment of the Effects of Global Change on the United States” (summary).
Commodity futures speculation
More on the possible contribution of index fund investment to recent commodity price moves.
The End of a Trend? The Export and Import Price Release in Context
The BLS’s Import/Export price release, from May 13th, might seem like old news. And some aspects are. But I think it is useful to think about what the trends in these price indices mean for general inflation and the adjustment process (this is in some sense an update on this post).
House prices and inventory
More outstanding analysis from Calculated Risk.
How Effective Will Monetary Easing Be? The Bank Lending Channel and the Implications of Increasingly Internationalized Banks
As I noted in a previous post, monetary policy works through various channels, one of which is the “bank lending channel”. Lower policy rates, as witnessed in the past few months and shown below, should induce greater lending.
Understanding crude oil prices
That’s the title of my latest research paper. Here’s the summary from the paper’s introduction.