We’ve been dwelling here quite a bit on the bleak incoming housing data. But I have to admit that I’m not seeing that spilling over so far into some of the other key economic indicators.
The Stock Market and Real GDP
With the recent surge in stock prices, some analysts believe that the probability of recession is receding.
Pick a finger
Princeton Professor Alan Blinder offers his thoughts in the New York Times on who’s to blame for the mortgage mess, getting the attention of Mark Thoma, Dave Iverson, Brad DeLong, and Greg Mankiw. Here are my two cents.
Foreign Exchange Market Transactions and Reserves: Recent Statistics
There’s been a cornucopia of forex market information released in the past week, which I’m only now getting to. First, the BIS has released the preliminary results from its Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity, conducted in April of this year. The results are interesting, insofar as they confirm trends evident in the previous survey in 2004. Second, the IMF released its most recent tabulation of foreign exchange reserve holdings (COFER).
Patent abuse
Nattering Naybob condemns the injustice in the Vonage court decisions.
Bugged by Excel
A colleague calls my attention to the fact that Excel 2007 is prone to a curious arithmetic miscalculation.
Yes, housing can go down even more
Today’s Census Bureau report on the number of new homes sold in August provides our first clear data for the impact on the housing market of the financial turmoil that began August 9. It is not a pretty sight.
Perspective on Selective Fiscal Restraint and the Bush Administration
As the President and the Congress head to a showdown over SCHIP, it might be useful to see how, over the 2000-2005 period, the Federal government’s fiscal exposure evolved.
More troubles for housing
New data released today portend continued weakness for housing.
What would be the implications of stagflation for the dollar?
The dollar is declining, with no apparent support. That’s because the recessionary factors seem to be dominating. But a reporter’s question about what factors might support the dollar prompted me to think about other influences that might work in a direction opposite the forces alluded to in the conventional wisdom.