Ray Stone of Stone & McCarthy Research Associates has some interesting observations on the quality of the payroll employment numbers released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Assessing CBO Projections
CBO releases CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2007 Update [pdf].
Musings on the Trade Release and Consumption Theory
Last week’s trade release induced some wide-ranging thoughts, that spurred more questions than answers. In an experimental post, I’ll pose some questions that I hope readers will help me answer.
New research on the causes of the housing boom and bust
What are the respective contributions of national and local factors to recent changes in house prices?
The Credit Crunch Continues, and the Conundrum Is History
The credit crunch seems to be worsening, rather than lessening, and the conundrum seems to have disappeared.
Oil, gold, the dollar, and inflation
Do the ongoing surge in gold and oil prices and slide in the dollar signal a resurgence of inflation?
The Expansion Compared: An Update
Just to put the 2007Q3 3.9% SAAR increase in GDP in perspective, here is how output stacks up during this expansion as compared to the last.
Modeling Exchange Rates: What Does Current Academic Thinking Have to Say about the Dollar’s Future?
If this is what Federal receipts look like at full employment…
…then a balanced budget is far off.
The CBO released its November budget review yesterday. In this figure, the red dashed line (receipts) is slowing its ascent. Expenditures are falling, but to the extent that transfers rise in slowdowns, one knows the likely trajectory of the blue line.
Well then, would $100 a barrel worry you?
A week ago I reviewed the reasons why $90-a-barrel oil by itself would not be enough to cause an economic recession. As oil prices charged up to $96 on Friday, a reporter asked me at what price I’d change my mind.